植耀辉: 转机未见续保留实力 煤价前景未明朗
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，市况继续维持闷局，皆因变数仍然颇多，单是本地局势之变化已令笔者过去两个月寝食难安；事实上，现时即使有资金，但入市买货亦顾虑多多。假设现时有一笔资金入市，但只可以选择买入恒指成份股，阁下会如何作出部署?本地金融、地产及公用股基於本地局势不会考虑、中美贸易相关股份亦存有一定风险；而人民币汇价走弱，对内地金融股、内房及濠赌股又有影响，资源股亦会面对经济下行挑战。在七除八扣下，可以选择的板块及绩优股，便只得「药股孖宝」、舜宇(02382.HK)及腾讯(00700.HK)，这是否就是近期该批股份股价较硬净的一大原因？
当然以上只是笔者猜想，但整体市况欠佳是不争事实。所以还是先保留实力，待市况有所转机再作部署。
另一方面，闷市中仍不乏异动股份。先谈谈兖州煤(01171.HK)。原因无他，在於周一(2日)该股大升超过18%，事缘集团豪派中期息1元人民币，除了派息比率高达85%外，预期息率(单计中期)亦已超过13厘!论息率无疑十分吸引，不过派息的先决条件在於，业务发展是否有延续性?那便要研究煤炭行业是否有「钱」途。有留意本栏的读者，应该知笔者对煤价看法一直相当有保留。不得不承认的是，笔者近年已较少研究相关板块，不过既然兖煤大升，自然亦要分析煤价去向。
综合而言，左右煤价去向的因素有以下几方面。1)全球两大煤炭消费国中国及印度的需求状况；2)新能源之崛起及应用，以及3)未来煤炭供应量。先谈第一及第二点。根据内地能源发展十三五规划，煤炭在能源结构之占比，将由2010年69.2%降至2015年之64%，并进一步降至2020年之58%。由於去年煤炭占比已降至59%，要达标应该没有太大难度。但此举亦反映未来内地煤炭难再有可观增长。印度方面，因电力供应不足，一度大力发电火电，但今年却大削相关发展，转移发展光伏发电。
至於内地清洁能源(包括非化石能源及天然气)占一次性能源总量比重约22.2%，较2012年提高7.7个百分点，但与2020年目标之25%及2030年之35%仍有一段距离。所以能源消费的结构调整，亦意味国策将倾斜新能源之上。
最後供应方面。煤价在2017年末至2018年初曾有一波急升，因极端天气及内地淘汰落後产能及限产导致煤产量供不应求；其後天气回暖及原煤产量逐步回升，煤价亦恢复正常。不过面对经济下行风险升温，电厂煤库存增加，同时美国亦持续增加煤出口量，相信未来供应依然充裕。
面对如此情况下，虽然预期煤价短期有望反弹，但後市仍不乐观，因此虽然息率吸引，但亦未宜作出吸纳。
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