宝龙地产(01238.HK)：商业经营稳步提升，合约销售加速增长，维持“增持”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：增持
事件
宝龙地产发布2019年中报，2019年上半年公司实现营业收入122.51亿元，同比增长32.0%；实现归母净利润18.03亿元，同比增长35.6%；实现归母核心利润12.45亿元，同比增长48.9%。2019H1公司结算毛利率38.8%，同比提升1个百分点。
点评
结算规模提升，毛利率稳中有升。2019上半年公司实现营业收入122.51亿元，同比增长32.0%；实现归母净利润18.03亿元，同比增长35.6%；实现归母核心利润12.45亿元，同比增长48.9%。公司各项财务指标都有所改善，2019H1在手现金185.26亿元，较2018年底增长17.4%；净负债率91.4%，较2018年底下降10.2个百分点；短期借款125.41亿元，较2018年底下降14.8%；加权平均融资成本6.24%，较2018年底下降24BP。
?合约销售加速增长，上调全年销售目标。2019上半年实现合约销售金额292.03亿元，总比增长78.7%；实现合约销售面积178.35万平米。同比增长53.8%。平均销售价格为16374元/平米。分结构看，公司在一线、二线、三四线销售金额占比分别是8.2%、61.4%、30.4%；住宅占比80%，商业占比20%。公司将2019全年合约销售目标从500亿元上调至550亿元，同时预期未来3年的合约销售金额保持年均30%增速，以此计算2021年公司有望突破千亿销售规模。
土地储备优质，潜在毛利丰厚。截至2019H1，公司总土地储备2437万平米，对应可售货值约3000亿元；平均土地成本2701元/平米。按照公司19H1销售均价计算，公司土地储备平均成本占销售均价的16.5%，潜在毛利丰厚。从结构看，公司深度聚焦长三角，土储中73%位于长三角区域。2019年至今，公司累计新增417万平米土储，平均成本5130元/平米，对应可售货值约467万平米，其中93.5%位于长三角区域。
商业经营稳步提升。公司2019上半年商业租金收入17.53亿元，同比增长28.1%，占整体营收比例为14%。2019年下半年公司预计有6座新商场开业，其中5个位于长三角区域，1个位于天津。预计截至2019年底，公司将持有超过45个商场，对应可租赁面积将达到315万平米。?投资建议：宝龙地产近年来销售规模扩张迅猛，公司持续深耕长三角，住宅与商业共同发力；公司土地储备量大质优、成本低位保障盈利水平，拿地积极尽显公司扩张决心。未来3年商业广场储备丰富，投资物业增量可观。预计2019-2020年EPS分别为0.90、1.11、1.38元，对应PE分别为4.7、3.8、3.1倍，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：行业销售波动；政策调整导致经营风险；融资环境变动；企业运营风险（人员变动、施工、拿地等）；汇率波动风险。
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