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大和:料市场将下调今年内险VNB预测 偏好友邦(1299.HK)、国寿(2628.HK)
格隆汇 09-03 16:32

大和发表研究报告指,考虑到潜在的新业务动能和利率的下降,对一些内地保险公司转向谨慎,估计市场会将内险版块今年新业务价值(VNB)增长预测从平均的10%至15%,下调至接近大和预估的9%水平。

大和留意到上半年行业代理数目下降,估计下半年将出现温和复升,但依然偏软,主要由于开门红销售淡化、宏观经济下行导致大额年金业务下滑,以及健康保竞争加剧等。该行又预料,行业下半年的新业务价值将按年增长13%,因为去年同期基数较低,但部分被新业务价值的利润压力所抵销。

该行认为,友邦(1299.HK)中国业务将能透过差异化的业务模式及严谨的执行来提供超过20%的新业务价值增长。集团虽然不会受利率下行影响,但却为公司提供更大弹性。目前相于内险股,该行更倾向友邦保险,而内险股中,则较喜欢中国人寿(2628.HK)。

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