敏实集团(00425.HK)：上半年利润下降，全年净利润有望稳定增长，维持“审慎增持”评级，目标价28.65 港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：28.65 港元
投资要点
上半年营收微增2.3%，净利润同比下降9.3%：2019年上半年，公司录得营业收入61.30亿元，同比增长2.3%，毛利率为32.4%，同比下滑一个百分点。归母净利润较去年同期下跌9.3%至8.94亿元。利润下降的主要原因是：第一、国内汽车行业景气度不佳，集团产能利用率下降；第二、中美贸易摩擦不断，关税上调导致公司毛利率承压；第三、研发费用率增加0.6个百分点至4.9%；第四、上半年的期权费用较同期增加。上半年净利润虽同比下降，但环比回升32.5%，因此公司全年净利润有望稳定增长。
中国市场营收下降，北美和欧洲业务收入稳定增长：分地区来看，2019上半年公司国内收入录得人民币34.0亿元，同比下降7.4%，占总收入的55.4%，这主要是受到中国汽车市场上半年产销同比分别下滑5.0%和12.1%的影响。海外营业额保持增长，同比上升18.3%，主要是得益于欧洲和北美地区业务的稳健增长。其中欧洲营业额同比增长36%，北美营业额同比增长12.7%。预计下半年欧洲和北美业务将继续保持稳健的增长。
铝电池盒产品开始量产，塞尔维亚新工厂开建：公司铝电池盒产品已经承接来自雷诺、日产宝马本田以及福特等11个客户15个车型的订单，逐步建立了在电池盒领域的行业地位，未来预计将带来稳定的收入增长。另外，公司在今年上半年启动了塞尔维亚工厂建设，进一步完善其全球布局。
我们的观点：敏实集团是汽车零部件企业中少有的具备全球布局及管理能力的公司，拥有稳定且庞大的客户群，成功进入国际一流主机厂的供应体系。由于汽车行业下行，竞争加剧，公司持续做新产品和项目的开发。因此我们下调公司2019-2021年EPS分别至1.61元、1.97元及2.40元，下降幅度约为为1.5-1.8%，给予2019年15倍PE，相当于目标价28.65港元，较现价有17.2%的上升空间，维持审慎增持评级。
风险提示：整车行业不景气，中美贸易摩擦，公司产能利用率不及预期。
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