《大行報告》中金:兗煤(001171.HK)中期盈利及派息超預期 受益精煤業務及費用下降
中金發表報告指,兗煤(001171.HK)公司公布今年上半年業績:A股收入1,060億元人民幣,按年增長39%,歸母淨利潤53.6億元人民幣,每股盈利1.09元,按年增長23.5%。H股收入332億元人民幣,按年增長3.2%,歸母淨利潤58.1億元人民幣,按年增長25.7%,超出預期,主要由於公司國內的精煤量價齊升,以及財務費用按年回落。
該行表示,上半年公司的商品煤產量0.47億噸,按年減少3.1%,其中國內精煤產量按年上升9%至913萬噸。另外,公司自產煤銷量按年下降5.7%至0.45億噸,但國內精煤銷量自產煤總銷量比例按年增長至21%。
中金稱,煤價下行空間有限,而國內新產能投放,但進口或回落,安全環保階段性收縮國內產量,預計動力煤價格下行空間有限。此外,焦煤相對焦化企業議價能力較高,預計下半年價格整體平穩。
該行上調兗煤今明兩年A股盈利預測各18%,至1.84元/1.9元人民幣,H股盈利預測上調24%/22%至1.88元/1.95元人民幣。當前A/H股股價對應明年5倍/3.1倍市盈率。中金維持兗煤A股「中性」評級和目標價12.5元人民幣。H股亦維持「中性」評級和目標價9港元。
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