中国民航信息网络（0696.HK）2019年中报点评：各项业务平稳增长，云业务拓展方起步
作者：光大海外付天姿、吴柳燕
来源：EBoversea
◆各项业务收入平稳增长，销售及人工成本上升致净利率下降
1H19公司实现营收38.4亿元人民币，同比上升9.2%；归母净利润14.5亿元人民币，同比上升4.6%低于营收增速，由于销售及人工成本费率上升。分业务看，受益于航空旅客量的增长，航空信息技术服务、结算及清算服务收入分别为22.2、3.0亿元人民币，分别同比上升8.9%、3.5%，合计占总收入65.7%；系统集成服务收入4.8亿元人民币，同比上升23.8%，业务推进加快，致达到收入确认时点项目增加；数据网络收入2.4亿元人民币，同比下降1.5%，因分拆西南凯亚公司。其他收入6.0亿元人民币，同比上升7.7%，主要由于机房租赁增加所致。
◆航空信息技术服务业务受旅客量增速下滑影响增速放缓
1H19公司电子旅游分销系统处理的国内外商营航空公司的航班订座量约3.37亿人次，同比上升7.8%，较1H18同比增速11.4%放缓。在全球经济下行、油价波动、中美贸易争端升温等多因素影响下，旅客量增速放缓。其中，中国商营航空公司航班订座量同比上升7.7%，较1H18同比增速11.8%放缓；外国及地区商营航空公司航班订座量同比上升9.5%，较1H18同比增速1.7%大幅攀升，由于订座量基数较低，叠加外航运力增加及公司产品服务改善、促销渠道投入。
受汇率因素影响，外航收入增速高于业务量增速，带动信息技术服务业务整体收入增速高于业务量增速。考虑到19年旅客量增速承压，大概率不及年初民航局预测的11%，我们预计2019年公司航空信息技术服务业务收入增速放缓。
◆新运行中心完成多系统迁移，云业务扩展进行中
截至1H19，北京顺义新运行中心累计支出约29.6亿元人民币，约占第一期工程预算81.0%；期内，公司ICS、CRS、APP、核心开放系统运行平稳，多系统逐步、如期迁至新运行中心，预期未来2年将进一步贡献IDC/云服务/云灾备等收入。此外，公司积极建设基础架构云平台，开发私有云，待技术成熟，满足自身需求后逐步向市场推出云产品，开拓分销IT服务产品范围。
◆估值与评级
由于公司航空信息技术服务业务增速不及预期，叠加研发支出增加，我们下调19/20年EPS预测30%/31%至0.90/0.98元人民币，新增21年EPS预测为1.07元人民币。参考其历史估值区间12-20倍PE，鉴于公司在国内航空IT市场地位稳固，各项业务平稳增长，云业务起步拓展新增长点，给予19年18倍PE，下调目标价至18元港币，下调至“增持”评级。
◆风险提示：重大事件影响航空旅行需求；新营运中心进度及收入贡献低于预期。
【附录】
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