哈尔滨电气(1133.HK):深度改革预计将被启动,维持“收集“评级,目标价2.70港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:收集
目标价:2.70港元
2019上半年的净利同比持平至人民币31百万元。公司于2019上半年的收入、毛利及净利分别同比下降了21.8%、9.9%及上升了2.2%。期内业绩差于我们预期。占总收入73%的火电设备及电站工程收入同比下降了29.2%及25.7%。期内综合毛利率同比升1.8个百分点至13.7%,主要因火电设备板块毛利率的回升。期内的新增订单达人民币61.33亿元,同比跌29.1%。海外新增订单于期内贡献了人民币3.4亿元,同比上升39.9%。
在没有取得来自股东方所需的收购接纳书后,公司的私有化方案正式以失败告终。哈电集团于延长后的交割日(即2019年7月19日)截止时仍缺1.68%的有效接纳书以实施对哈尔滨电气的私有化。我们认为本次私有化的失败主要可归因于4.56港元每股的低要约收购价格,此收购价仅相当于公司0.5倍的2018年市净率。我们对于公司于日后重新推出更新版的私有化方案抱持着希望。
我们维持对公司“收集”的投资评级但下调其目标价至2.70港元。鉴于公司的毛利率正在回升以及深度改革预计将被推出,我们经调整后的2019至2021年的每股盈利预测分别为人民币0.057元/人民币0.133元/人民币0.218元。2.70港元的新目标价相当于18.0倍/10.9倍2020至2021年市盈率或0.3倍/0.3倍/0.3倍2019至2021年市净率。

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