2019年中报点评 | 绿色动力环保(1330.HK)：在建项目顺利投产，业绩增长确定性强，维持“增持”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：增持
◆事件：公司发布2019年半年度报告，2019年上半年公司实现营业收入7.95亿元，同比增长54.06%；实现归母净利润2.17亿元，同比增长20.35%。（注：同比数据均为公司变更国家可再生能源补助电费收入确认会计政策后的调整后数据）
◆投运项目稳健运营，在手项目推进顺利。截至2019年6月30日，公司共运营20个垃圾焚烧发电项目（报告期新投运密云、汕头等5个垃圾焚烧项目，新增产能5100吨/日），总日处理能力达1.86万吨；另有一个垃圾填埋项目（日处理量450吨）和一个秸秆发电项目（日处理量700吨）；2019年上半年公司累计垃圾进厂量达340.12万吨（同比+54.97%），实现发电量10.58万吨（同比+50.39%），上网电量8.73亿度（同比+46.53%），均创公司历史同期新高，带动垃圾焚烧发电项目运营营业收入同比+55.99%至6.19亿元。受多个新项目投运及泰州等项目大修影响，报告期内公司进厂吨垃圾发电量和2018年全年相比有所下降（减少4.60%至311度/吨），综合毛利率下滑8.48个pct至53.55%。
公司目前共有7个项目建设推进顺利（总日处理能力9900吨），按完工百分比确认的长期应收款显著增加，带动按照实际利率法确认的利息收入同比+30.10%至1.38亿元。公司下半年计划将有四会项目投产，丰城、宜春、惠州二期、海宁扩建等项目加速建设，另计划开工建设平阳二期、石首及登封等3个项目（总日处理能力2500吨），在手项目的顺利推进将给公司业绩带来稳健增量。
◆市场拓展力度不减，未来业绩增长确定性强。报告期内公司签署平阳二期、靖西及恩施等三个垃圾焚烧项目，收购贵州金沙项目，新签日处理能力达6150吨（同比+38.20%），较好的丰富了公司项目储备，为公司业绩的持续增长打下基础。
◆维持“增持”评级。根据公司上半年项目投产情况和毛利率下滑情况，我们小幅下调盈利预测，预计公司 2019-21年净利润为3.46/4.39/5.56亿元（原值为3.56/4.41/5.67亿元），对应2019-21年EPS为0.30/0.38/0.48元（即0.34/0.43/0.54港元），当前股价对应19年PE为11倍。公司作为唯一一家A+H上市的垃圾焚烧公司，国资背景可以带给其对外扩张优势，也有助于提升公司对垃圾处理价格的议价权，维持“增持”评级。
◆风险提示：在建项目投产不及预期，融资环境恶化影响公司扩张。
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