交銀國際洪灝稱人民幣貶值壓力仍大 港股未完全反映負面因素
交銀國際董事總經理兼研究部主管洪灝在出席電台節目後表示,中美貿易戰近月再次升級,雙方開始互相施壓,反映談判進入最關鍵時刻,但由於距離新一輪關稅實施時間太近,雙方或只能選擇延後加稅的暫時停火措施,不可解決根本問題。
他稱人民幣貶值可對沖中國出口面對的壓力,不過目前人民幣的貶值已超出基本面,難以用量化模式推算貶值水平,但相信人民幣貶值壓力仍然很大,兌美元可能會貶至7.2至7.4的水平。
另外,他指現時港股未完全反映貿易戰所有負面因素,未來有機會再下挫至上一低位的約24,500點,加上近期香港社會事件,投資者對香港市場的信心缺失,打擊本港的融資能力,例如百威亞太擱置上市,及阿里巴巴延後在港第二上市等。
洪灝又提到,受社會事件影響,香港7月的零售數據或會下降逾10%,8月數據料進一步全面反映影響,零售銷售有機會錄得三分之一的下跌。他直言,本港第二季經濟數據已下跌,在中美貿易戰及社會事件影響疊加之下,下半年經濟陷入衰退的機會非常大。
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