微博(WB.US)：盈利高于预期，用户活跃度增长强劲，维持“审慎增持”评级
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
投资要点
业绩概要：
微博（WB.O）于2019年8月19日晚发布2019年二季度业绩公告：2019Q2，微博实现营收4.32亿美元（单位下同）(YoY+1%)，人民币口径yoy+7%，符合我们预期(4.35亿USD)；广告收入3.71亿美元，同比持平,人民币口径yoy+6%；其中SME广告1.75亿，(YoY-6%)，人民币口径下同比持平；KA广告收入1.72亿，(YoY+12%)，人民币口径下增19%；公司2QNon-GAAP净利润为1.56亿，超出我们预期7%，Non-GAAP净利率为36%。公司预计19Q3净营收同比增长6%-9%。
用户增速回暖，增长净值为近4季度最快。二季度微博活跃用户增速有所回暖，MAU达4.86亿(YoY+12.8%)，较上年同期净增约5，500万；DAU达2.11亿(YoY+11%)，较上年同期增长约2100万。主要由于:1)手机预装用户MAU同比实现两位数增长；2)信息流和短视频类产品的优化使得用户内容消费频率有所提高，兴趣流刷新次数同比提高一倍；3)微博社群产品的推出加强了大V和粉丝间的互动；4)热点领域和新闻领域的影响力和传播效率。
KA获得小幅增长，SME增速持续放缓，竞争加剧和库存售卖率不足是主要原因。KA广告收入在2Q19获得1.72亿收入(YoY+12%)，人民币口径下增19%，较高于预期。其中快消品、汽车、电商行业实现增长较超预期。3C广告受手机出货量下滑的影响较大。SME广告1.75亿(YoY-6%)，人民币口径下同比持平。人民币口径下较高于预期，但增长依旧乏力。主要由于竞争加剧+库存售卖率不足导致；我们预计长期断优化将提高SME广告主的投放量。
投资建议：由于目前宏观经济形势不明朗叠加广告库存供给竞争的市场竞争情况，公司虽因用户的强势增长略有回暖，但考虑到汇率的影响，我们微调公司19/20年净营收从18.4亿/21亿美元至18.2/20.5亿美元，基于DCF模型微调目标价至50.43美元（原:49.03美元），对应19/20年Non-Gaap归母净利润PerADS20/18倍，继续维持“审慎增持”评级。
风险提示：互联网广告行业单价下滑；行业政策风险；行业竞争激烈
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