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58.com(WUBA.US):出售车好多集团致利润大幅增长,维持“审慎增持”评级
格隆汇 08-30 08:38

机构:兴业证券

评级:审慎增持

投资要点

19Q2公司收入增长略超预期。公司19Q2公司实现收入41.3亿元(YoY+20.5%),超出19Q1公司给出的40-41亿元guidance上限;与我们的预期相比,公司主要收入来源——会员费及网络营销服务收入——并未超预期,超预期部分为电子商务服务及其他服务收入,主要原因是一手房及转转等业务收入的快速增长。公司预计19Q3收入为41-42亿元(YoY+13%至+16%)

出售车好多集团股权致利润大幅增加。公司19Q2实现Non-GAAP营业利润11.46亿元(YoY+29%),Non-GAAP归母净利润16.46亿元(YoY+101%),净利润大幅增长主要在于公司本期出售车好多集团股权取得大量投资收益(19Q2投资收益总计影响Non-GAAP净利润约7亿元)。

营销费用率控制,Non-GAAP营业利润率回升。公司19Q2广告费用率为23.4%,环比降低5.6pct,同比降低1.18pct;非广告营销费用(主要为人员)率为26%,环比下降3.9pct,同比下降1pct。变动原因在于公司19Q2起控制广告费用,并坚持整个2019年对销售人员费用的控制策略。最终公司Non-GAAP营业利润率同比增加1.8pct至23.4%。

盈利预测及评级。我们预计公司2019/20/21年收入为153/176/202亿元,Non-GAAP归母净利润36/35/39亿元(2019因投资收益影响上调21%),对应EPS为24.6/23.5/26.7元。由于宏观环境对公司业务影响明显,我们下调目标价9.23%至60美元,目标价对应2019/20/21年Non-GAAPEP的PE分别为17/18/16倍,维持“审慎增持”评级。

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