植耀辉: 港股试底机会仍高 瑞声(02018.HK)今非昔比恐续捱沽
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，中美两国之间的贸易战已演化至另一阶段，详情不再累赘；至於港股面对之情况无疑更加复杂，但可以肯定的是，大市有相当大机会「低处未算低」，皆因企业盈利前景审慎，同时本地形势依然悲观，短期有三、四百点技术反弹不出奇，但大方向仍是寻底居多，初步仍以25,000点作短期支持，因此仍不建议大家胡乱捞底。
业绩期，又跟大家谈谈个别公司表现。舜宇光学(02382.HK)过去曾是笔者心水爱股之一，不过自去年公布令人失望之中期业绩後，某程度上有点被它吓怕了。当然之後仍有留意行业发展，但毛利率下跌的阴霾仍挥之不去。所以今次中期业绩见其光学零件(即镜头)毛利率出现反弹(上升2.1个百分点至44.1%)，反映在技术发展上存在一定优势，笔者亦预期相关范畴将可继续在下半年带来不俗表现。相比之下，收入占比75%之光电产品(摄像头模头)表现依然不济，毛利率由9.4%大跌至5.9%。当然集团将此归咎於新产品良率及生产效率尚待提升，惟笔者仍会再观察未来出货量，始再审视舜宇前景。
相比之下，瑞声科技(02018.HK)情况确实较严峻，业绩表现差及未来发展缺乏亮点是导致股价不断寻底的主因，但不同之处在於投资者仍会视舜宇为一只具增长潜力之手机设备股，但瑞声虽然历史市盈率已跌至不足10倍，但如果将之视为一只工业股，则估值仍难言吸引。所以两者股价走势如此极端有其原因。笔者亦相信，只要舜宇继续交出亮丽出货量，股价或有机会续试高位；瑞声则恐怕要交出令人说服之业绩表现，始有机会重拾投资者信心。
另一只想谈谈的是中烟香港(06055.HK)。其公布之中期业绩纯利倒退30.5%至仅得1.3亿元。由於招股书已有提到今年业绩表现存有暗涌，故笔者对其绩差并不感到意外；而假设下半年利润保持不变，中烟估值依然偏高。不过，该股自上市至今其实一直有一个最大卖点，就是母公司注资概念。当然笔者一直对此看法甚有保留，但预期在未来有望纳入成为港股通名单下，相信不乏资金炒作，只是投资者要有心理准备，随时股价又会大幅震荡矣！
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