比亚迪电子（0285.HK）：产品结构及行业竞争加剧致毛利率下降，Q3有望好转
作者：周旭辉 张向伟等
来源：海通海外研究
公司公告2019年H1业绩。2019H1，公司营收232.8亿元，同比增长19.3%，股东应占利润5.8亿元，同比下滑49.3%，毛利率6.66%，同比下滑3.53pct。单季度，19Q2营收128.9亿元，同比增长22.0%，股东应占利润1.9亿元，同比下降72%，毛利率5.53%。
分项业务：2019H1，手机及笔电业务收入199.2亿元，占收入的86%，其中零部件业务收入80.6亿元，组装业务收入118.7亿元；新型智能产品收入26.0亿元，汽车智能系统收入7.6亿元。
毛利率下降及研发费用提升致利润下降。2019H1，综合毛利率6.66%，同比下滑3.53pct，我们认为主要源于：1）行业竞争加剧；2）产品结构变化。2019H1，公司研发费用8.5亿元，同比增2.3亿元，研发费用率由去年同期的3.19%提升至3.65%。
手机零部件业务承压，5G手机渗透率提升有望推动业务改善。中美贸易争端背景下，手机行业处于低谷，金属业务暂时承压，2019H1，公司来自手机及笔电零部件的业务收入80.6亿元，表现不佳。随着5G手机渗透率提升，对金属、塑胶、玻璃等结构件加工精度和性能要求会进一步提升，公司针对5G需求已提前布局相关创新材料，我们认为：结合公司在金属、塑胶、玻璃的综合性优势，零部件业务有望迎来新的增长。
客户结构更为多元，新型智能产品和汽车智能系统产品快速成长。1）公司进入了北美大客户的核心产品线，实现业务的突破性进展；2）新型智能产品保持快速增长，与客户合作持续深入；3）汽车智能系统出货量大幅增长，同时公司与国际Tier 1厂商的合作持续推进。
盈利预测与投资建议。我们预计公司2019-2021年分别实现归母净利润17.6、22.5和25.8亿元，同比增速分别为-19%、28%和15%；分别实现每股收益0.78、1.00和1.14元；考虑到2019年5-6月受到H客户一定影响，而下半年及明年有望修复，我们根据2020年EPS进行估值，结合同业估值和公司增速，我们认为公司合理PE估值区间为对应2020年9-11X，对应9.00-11.00元/股，按照1港元=0.90元人民币估算，对应合理价值区间为10.00-12.22港元/股，维持优于大市评级。
风险提示：智能手机行业出货量不及预期，价格战超预期。
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