瑞银财管料中国加快「放水」应对贸易冲击 人币或短暂跌穿7.3
瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室发表报告，指中美贸易争端再度升级，中国将对750亿美元的美国出口商品加徵5%至10%的关税，分两阶段实施(9月和12月)，并将在12月恢复对进口自美国的汽车及零部件加徵关税。美国对中方的反制措施反应激烈，提出将此前对2,500亿美元中国商品加徵的25%关税提高至30%，从10月1日起实施。此外，美国还准备对最後一批约3,000亿美元中国商品加徵的关税(尚未实施)从原定的10%上调至15%(分两批实施：9月开始对3,000亿美元中的1,310亿美元中国商品加徵关税，12月对余下商品开始加徵)。
从宏观层面来看，报告认为中国将实施更多宽松政策来应对贸易带来的冲击，从而推动今年经济增长至少达到6.1%。明年增长可能进一步放缓至5.8%甚至更低。关键在於该行预期中国将继续寻求达成贸易协定，但在谈判期间也会不时采取反制措施来应对美方一再升级关税(比如公布「不可靠实体清单」、对美国服务业和食品徵税等)。
对中国来说，更大的担忧在於，经济下行风险加大的同时，科技争端也升级。这些事件的净影响将加剧全球经济与金融市场的下行风险。因此，该行调降投资组合的风险水准，将总体股票配置下调至减码(通过减码新兴市场股票来实现)，但该行依然看好债券与货币市场套利策略，央行的宽松举措应该有利於这些策略。
股票方面，瑞银财管预期新一轮关税措施将导致亚洲企业获利增速下降2.5个百分点。再加上人民币贬值，可能导致MSCI亚洲(日本除外)指数的市净率跌至1.3倍(仅比危机水准高8%)。最受打击的行业包括：资讯技术(IT)、银行、汽车和工业。有监於此，该行看好亚洲高股息股票主题。
债券方面，贸易冲突将导致亚洲高收益债的信用利差进一步走阔30至50个基点，投资级债券则相对稳健。报告看好优质B/BB级债券的稳定套利机会，比如精选国企或房地产开发商债券。
外汇方面，该行预期未来人民币将进一步走软，美元/人民币或短暂升穿7.3。因此，投资者在未来六个月仍应该继续对冲人民币多头敞口。
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