2019年中期业绩点评|友邦保险(1299.HK)寿险楷模中国内地渐成主力维持“买入”评级
机构：国信证券
评级：买入
2019年中期业绩增速稳中有升，业务风险维持于低位
截至于2019年6月30日，友邦保险税后营运盈利达到28.98亿美元（+12%），其中中国内地的盈利增速最高，达到32%，而业务占比第一的香港地区，其增速是8.0%。同时，内含价值达到597亿美元（+14.9%），内含价值营运回报率为17.3%（+30个基点）。集团股本及利率风险敞口维持于低位，如两者分别下降50个基点，内含价值分别下降1.4%以及0.7%。
中国内地和香港地区乃新业务增速主力
同期，新业务价值达到22.75亿美元（+20%），其中代理人渠道贡献的新业务价值占比达到72%。其中，香港地区新业务价值达到9.45亿美元（+19%），占比第一，为39.6%（+0.9个百分点），同时中国内地新业务价值达到7.02亿美元（+34%），占比第二，为29.38%（+2.38个百分点）：两者为业务增速的主要贡献。泰国业务占比第三，为9.0%（-0.9个百分点），新业务价值为2.15亿美元（+5%）。
新单盈利能力于高位实现稳定提升
同期，新业务价值率达到65.6%（+6.1个百分点）。其中，中国内地业务受益于税收相关政策的调整，新业务价值率提升至93.2%（+2.2个百分点），同时香港地区新业务价值率上升至68.0%（+5.7个百分点），泰国的新业务价值率下滑至66.8%（-4.2个百分点）。
投资组合：分红型业务的股本占比高，其他业务固收为绝对主力
同期,保单持有人及股东的总投资资产达到1920亿美元（+12%），固收类资产占比82.6%，股本债券占比12.5%。其中为分红业务而持有的固收类资产占比73.6%，股本证券占比24.0%，物业持有占比1.4%；为正常业务所持有的固收类资产占比88.0%，股本证券占比5.5%，物业占比微降至4.28%。
投资建议：维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。
预计2019-2021年每股内含价值42.25/49.73/58.43，同比15%/17%/17%，当前股价对应PEV=1.9x//1.6x/1.4x。随着全球降息周期的到来，以及资产和负债管理暂行办法的推进，我们看好寿险企业未来的新单增速及估值提升。
风险提示：（1）中国内地的新业务推进受阻；（2）经济预期恶化
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