華僑銀行港失業率或進一步上升打擊消費情緒致零售業雪上加霜
華僑銀行經濟師謝棟銘及華僑永亨銀行經濟師李若凡發表報告稱,香港方面,上周外匯和貨幣市場有所穩定。市場焦點轉向阿里巴巴將推遲來港上市時間最早至10月的消息。目前看來,香港股市低迷的投資情緒似乎沒有令阿里巴巴打退堂鼓。因此,除了月結、季結以及對潛在資本外流的擔憂之外,阿里巴巴的大型IPO可能驅使市場參與者在短期內更積極地逢低吸納港元流動性。
因此,報告預期長端港元利率將繼續高企,而短端港元利率的下行空間亦將有限。另外,除非香港開始出現大規模資本外逃,否則該行認為短期內美元兌港元不會輕易觸及7.85。
勞動力市場方面,失業率維持在逾二十年低位的2.8%超過一年後,於5至7月上升至2.9%,主要是受到疲軟經濟增長、中美貿易戰及社會動盪的拖累。展望未來,若社會問題持續發酵及貿易戰進一步升級,可能導致主要行業及整體經濟面臨更大的下行壓力,從而進一步削弱招聘情緒。在此情況下,失業率或進一步上升。而就業市場的轉弱則可能打擊消費情緒,從而進一步利淡零售業的前景。
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