华润燃气(1193.HK)销气量稳健提升接驳用户数快速增长维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
2019年上半年业绩略高于预期
公司披露2019年上半年业绩公告，2019年上半年公司实现营业收入281.73亿港元，同比增长18.1%；实现毛利70.30亿港元，同比增长4.3%；实现归母净利润29.28亿港元，同比增长10.6%，剔除人民币汇率影响公司实际净利润增长17.6%，略高于我们的预期。
销气量稳健提升，毛差维持稳定
2019年上半年公司销气收入为234.2亿港元，同比增长16.2%，天然气销售量达140.0亿立方米，同比增长13.1%，主要受益于工业用户销气量的快速增长。2019年上半年工业用户销气量为62.8亿立方米，同比增长22.6%。2019年上半年公司销气毛差为人民币0.58元/立方米，同比下降0.04元/立方米。我们预计未来三年公司销气量将稳健增长，分别为278.29/315.12/354.47亿立方米，同比增长14.63%/13.23%/12.49%；毛差维持稳定，分别为人民币0.59/0.59/0.59元/立方米。
新增接驳用户快速增长，接驳费温和下调
2019年上半年公司实现燃气接驳收入44.40亿港元，同比增长32.9%，优于我们的预期。2019年上半年，公司新增接驳居民数147.8万户，同比增长31.96%，其中新房接驳137.8万户，旧房改造7.6万户。上半年公司平均接驳费为2730元，同比下15.5%。我们预计2019-2021年公司新增接驳居民户数分别为368.5/412.7/454.0万户，接驳费将温和下调。
新兴业务与增值业务成为业绩新增长点
公司积极开拓新兴业务与增值业务，2019年上半年公司增值业务收入6.58亿港元，其中保险业务收入为1.45亿港元，同比增长98.2%；2019年上半年公司新签约两个分布式能源项目，累计项目已达25个；充电桩业务实现经营利润1,941万港元。我们预计公司未来新兴业务与增值业务发展潜力较大，将成为公司新的业绩增长点。
盈利预测与投资评级
2019年8月23日，华润燃气（01193.HK）收盘价为39.75港元。我们预测公司2019-2021年EPS分别为港币2.31/2.59/2.85元，按最新收盘价计算对应市盈率分别为17.2X/15.3X/13.9X。我们认为公司销气量在未来三年将稳健增长，毛差相对稳定，接驳业务增长可持续，我们基于2019年18倍PE，给予公司合理价值为41.59元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
“煤改气”政策实施不及预期，销气毛差降幅超过预期，供给能力限制销气量较快。增长，人民币兑港币汇率贬值超预期。
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