361度(1361.HK)业务复苏走上正轨重申“买入“评级
机构:国泰君安
评级:买入
目标价:2.28港元
2019年上半年业绩好于预期。收入同比增长7.3%,主要由服装板块同比增长13.6%所带动。由于原材料成本上涨以及服装产品毛利率下降,整体毛利率同比下降0.8个百分点至40.9%。公司在2019年上半年实施了有效的费用控制,使得整体销售及一般管理费用率同比减少1.2个百分点。净利润同比增加9.7%至3.67亿元人民币。中期及特别股息合计为每股0.082元人民币,派息比率为46.2%。
分别上调2019-2021年每股盈利预测21.5%、31.7%和49.5%至0.223元人民币、0.261元人民币和0.316元人民币。公司对2019年的指引为:收入录得高单位数同比增长,毛利率维持在40%-41%,经营利润率维持在16%-20%。基于对公司未来业务复苏的更好展望,我们分别上调2019-2021年收入预测4.0%、6.4%和8.5%。我们分别上调2019-2021年经营利润率预测1.2个百分点、1.3个百分点和1.6个百分点至16.4%、16.8%和17.3%。
上调目标价至2.28港元并重申“买入”评级。公司的品牌重塑项目已经产生了一些正面效果,我们对此持更加乐观的观点。我们预期公司的业务将从过去两年的低谷中逐渐开始恢复,伴随盈利能力的持续改善。我们预测公司的每股盈利在2018-2021年期间将录得29.1%的年复合增长率。我们的新目标价分别相当于9.0倍、7.7倍和6.4倍2019年、2020年和2021年市盈率,以及52.0%的上升空间,因此我们重申“买入”评级。

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