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瑞银财管减仓股票加仓高评级债券但基本因素不应强烈沽售股票
阿思达克 08-26 14:37

瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监Mark Haefele发表报告,指该行减持股票、对冲及「长仓」收益类的组合,接近於对风险取态中性。Haefele认为,短期中美谈判将主导後市发展,投资者应接受更高的波动性。该行称,作出行动中和部分事态风险属审慎,以等待展望趋於明确。

该行称,加仓於高评级债券,移除对环球股票的「增持」看法。相对於政府债券,股票估值相对吸引,惟中美贸易冲突的不确定性限制上行空间。即使美联储或出手限制下行幅度,该行对美联储推升股市能力的信心已不复再。贸易谈判展望的改变,不论是升级还是休战,都会急剧改变展望。

该行对新兴市场股票首予「减持」看法。新兴市场企业更曝露於市场波动性,环球经济放缓,及贸易争端延长。对比加仓美元计价新兴市场主权债,该行维持对英国股票看法「减持」。这导致该行对整体股票仓位转变至「减持」。

此外,Haefele称,对新兴市场高收益货币调整仓位。减仓低收益澳元及新台币,维持对印尼盾及印度卢比的「增持」看法。

该行维持偏好收益提升策略,在增长放缓期间受惠於央行放水,包括加仓於欧洲投资级别债券,及如上述,加仓美元计价新兴市场主权债。随着中美谈判进展,该行准备随时修订其组合。

Haefele称,该行并不是调整组合,以迎接传统意义上的衰退甚至大型金融危机。倘特朗普推文宣布贸易战结束,当时股市会向上。即使风险情境发生,亦仍有更多基本因素不应强烈沽售股票。现时,通胀仍然疲弱,政府债收益仍届历史低位,退休基金及其他资产管理人在未来数月调整组合时,在股票之外,他们选择并不多。央行正处「放水」模式及财政刺激已准备就绪。即使制造业放缓蔓延至更广泛经济,该行料股票潜在跌幅较接近15%,而不是25%。相对长线投资者,投资者倘希望短线「捉反弹」,恐怕只会损害投资组合。

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