龙源电力(0916.HK)2019年半年报点评下半年风电投产力度加大维持“买入”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
◆中期净利32.08亿人民币，同比增长0.5%，基本符合预期：公司2019年中期收入140.38亿，同比增长5.1%；中期净利32.08亿，同比增长0.5%；每股基本盈利0.38元，同比增长0.47%。
◆上半年风电限电率继续改善、利用小时同比基本持平：上半年公司风电限电率5.65%，去年同期7%。风电利用小时1,172小时，同比降低9小时。管理层指引2019年公司风电利用小时2,230小时，发电目标419亿千瓦时，全年限电率目标5.21%。
◆上半年风电平均上网电价同比持平：上半年风电平均不含税上网电价0.478元/kWh、同比持平，市场交易化规模的扩大带来的负面影响被增值税率下调所抵消。上半年公司风电市场化交易电量占比27.46%，去年同期24.63%，平均交易电价小幅上升；全年预计交易电量占比28.5%，交易电价与2018年持平。
◆上半年新增装机90兆瓦，下半年预计投产加速：上半年公司新增风电储备225万千瓦，获得平价项目247.5兆瓦，获得竞价项目开发权45兆瓦。上半年新投产风电项目仅90兆瓦，在建风电项目150万千瓦，下半年计划再开工260万千瓦。管理层表示，公司下半年将加大开工投产力度，有信心完成全年1.2-1.5吉瓦投产目标。
◆下调目标价至HK$5.90，维持“买入”评级公司风电限电率持续改善、利用小时维持高位，下半年及2020年加大风电项目投产力度，2020年之后将步入平稳发展阶段。公司18年风电投产规模低于我们此前预测，且上半年为投产传统淡季，下调2019-2020年净利预测16.4%、16.8%至40.55、42.76亿元，新增2021年净利预测46.12亿元。我们认为，中长期而言新能源电价补贴拖欠将得到最终解决，短期而言公司于2017-2018年已经实现正的自由现金流（分别为35.1、27.9亿元），同时管理层指引19年下半年补贴回收金额好于去年同期（41.2亿）；现金流改善有助于公司降负债和提升派息比例。下调目标价至HK$5.90，维持“买入”评级。当前估值7.6x2019年P/E。
◆风险提示：风电限电率回升；新增装机不达预期；补贴拖欠加剧。
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