特步国际(1368.HK)收入增长稳定存货周转提升现金流大增维持“增持”评级
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
本报告导读：
公司作为本土知名运动品牌，业绩表现良好，门店拓展电商高增长，产品品质优化盈利水平提升，维持增持评级。
摘要：
维持增持评级：公司收入稳定增长，盈利能力提升，维持2019-2021年净利润预测值7.93/9.41/11.03亿元，同比增长20.7%/18.8%/17.2%，当前市值对应2019年PE约为16倍，维持增持评级。
收入利润双增长，销售结构优化提升毛利率，存货周转率改善，现金流大增。公司2019H1实现营业收入33.63亿，同比增长23.0%，净利润4.63亿（yoy+23.4%），业绩符合预期。上半年毛利率提升0.9pct至44.6%，主要系公司产品销售结构优化所致，高毛利的功能性服装受到消费者青睐，销售占比加大，带动服饰类产品毛利率提升2.7pct。期末存货8.06亿元，周转天数79天，较上年同期下降23天。这主要得益于公司提高生产和交付周期的灵活性，三个批次发货有效根据终端动销控制存货水平，同时有效控制产品折扣率的下降。期末公司现金流净额4.22亿元，同比去年同期大幅增长88.55%。
渠道改革见成效线上维持高增长，巩固跑步领先地位进军篮球领域。分渠道来看，我们估算线上渠道收入增速逾30%，公司加大对线上专供款的设计研发，电商专供产品占线上销售达到60%。线下方面，估算其收入增速近20%，增长源于恢复新开店，期末总门店数量达到6312家，较年初新增82家。同时门店质量大幅提升，同店销售低双位数增长。公司继续赞助国内各大马拉松赛事，确保跑步领域优势，8月签约林书豪，加大篮球产品系列的推广，有望成为新增长点。
新品牌培育在即，从专业功能跑鞋向高端体育用品和时尚体育用品延伸。公司基于对未来长远发展的考虑，开始培育新品牌。与WolverineGroup合作在中国开发迈乐及索康尼，为消费者提供高端功能性运动及户外运动用品。另外，公司于5月收购K-Swiss和帕拉丁，提供优质时尚产品，进一步丰富品牌及产品矩阵。
风险提示：新品牌运作、电商销售不及预期，运动服饰消费放缓。
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