天伦燃气(1600.HK)2019年中期业绩理想重申“买入”评级
机构:中泰国际
评级:买入
2019年上半年股东净利润同比增长88.1%
在城市燃气销售量上升及乡镇煤改气业务发展下,公司2019年股东净利润同比上升88.1%至人民币4.1亿(见图表1),分别相等于我们和市场全年预测的人民币10.3亿和9.0亿之39.2%和45.1%。今年上半年城市燃气销售量同比上升23.3%;我们预期全年同比增长率可达到25.0%。
乡镇煤改气业务持续发展
公司持续发展乡镇煤改气业务,于2019年上半年新增接驳250,027乡镇用户。我们相信2019年全年新增乡镇接驳用户可达到600,000用户。
微调盈利预测
我们微调2019年和2020年股东净利润预测(见图表2),并引入2021年预测。我们因此预期股东净利润将由2018年的人民币5.7亿上升至2021年的人民币17.0亿,复合年增长率达到44.0%。
重申“买入”评级
我们相应地将由贴现现金流分析(DCF)推算的目标价轻微调整至11.15港元(见图表3、4),这对应7.4倍2020年市盈率和26.7%上升空间。重申“买入”评级。
风险提示(一)项目开发延误;(二)天然气供应紧张;(三)接驳费下降或被取消;(四)“煤改气”政策实施不及预期。

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