民生教育(1569.HK)﹕公司增长动力来自滇池及南昌学校
机构：招银国际
概要。投资者在路演中主要关注增长前景、已收购项目的并表时间表及未来并购。我们认为公司估值吸引，基于估值低于历史平均市盈率及行业平均PEG。
滇池学院带动公司1H19盈利增长。1H19公司经调整凈利润同比增长42%至2.33亿元人民币。滇池学院在去年8月份并表后，于1H19贡献了6,000至7,000万凈利润，占去了公司上半年利润增长的大部份。该校于2019/20学年的招生学额增长了11%至7,890，我们认为滇池学院将继续成为公司的增长动力。
南昌学校是新增长点。该校已于1H19完成升本，将于2019年9月招收第一批本科学生。总招生学额将从去年的4,000名(只有专科)急增至8,000名(本科2,000+专科6,000)。本科学费将定于18,000-22,000人民币，而专科学费更从2018/19学年的7,300-8,000人民币大幅提升至9,500-12,000人民币。管理层预期该校未来两三年的收入年均复合增长率可达到20-30%。
已收购项目的并表时间表未明朗。尽管南昌学校举办人变更的时间表未明朗，但是公司会寻求于2019年底前达成托管协议，以将该校的凈利润以管理费收入并表。安徽文达学院方面，目前正处于举办人债务重组阶段，完成后才可进入举办人变更程序。
并购。公司希望于2019下半年达成一项并购，目标会考虑独立设置的本科或具升本基础的高职学校。截至2019年6月30日止，公司手持现金7.53亿人民币，加入预期9月份收取10亿元人民币学宿费，以及工商银行100亿元的意向性融资，我们认为公司具有充足现金进行收购。
估值。根据彭博预测，公司目前估值为12.3倍FY19E市盈率，低于其历史平均值14.6倍，其0.65倍PEG亦低于行业平均值0.73倍。催化剂﹕(1)政策不明朗性消除﹔(2)并购﹔(3)南昌学校达成托管协议。
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