一表了解券商对国寿(02628.HK)於业绩後最新目标价及观点(表)
中国人寿(02628.HK)今日早市升近4%，盘中曾高见18.98元，券商指其上半年新业务价值超预期，代理人指标表现强劲。该公司昨日(22日)收市後公布中期业绩，总保费收入按年升4.9%至3,779.76亿元人民币(下同)，纯利按年升128.9%至375.99亿元，符合早前预告纯利增长介乎115%至135%，每股盈利1.32元。不派息。
公司上半年新业务价值按年上升22.7%至345.69亿元。上半年实现净投资收益按年增加11.1%至720.3亿元，净投资收益率按年持平於4.66%。於6月底止，综合偿付能力充足率为269.09%，较去年年底上升18.53个百分点。
【增长符合盈喜预期】
截至6月国寿内含价值达8,868.04亿元，较去年底增长11.5%；公司长险有效保单数量达2.97亿份，较去年年底增长4.2%。保单持续率(14个月及26个月)分别为86.1%和87%，按年分别下跌6.2个百分点及上升0.2个百分点。於6月底止，综合偿付能力充足率为269.09%，较去年年底上升18.53个百分点。
券商中以摩根大通最为乐观，该行认为，国寿有强劲转势潜力，从其产品组合、分销渠道及资产负债表质量可见。该行指相对於强劲指标，认为国寿估值不合理地偏低，因其股价对内涵价值比率(P/EV)仅为0.5倍，接近低位。该行上调对中国人寿的目标价，由43港元上调至45港元，反映其强劲的新业务价值增长，维持「增持」评级。
中金表示，国寿中期新业务价值按年升23%，超过市场预期3%，内含价值较年初增长12%，超过市场预期3%，净利润按年大升1.29倍，指第二季末代理人数较首季末增长2%，同时赛伍质量提升，月均有销售人力按年增长38%，远超代理人总数增速，维持对其「跑赢行业」评级及目标价28港元。
本网最新综合11间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
摩根大通│增持│43元-45元大和│买入│29元
中金│跑赢行业│28元
瑞信│跑赢大市│26元
华泰金控│买入│26元
花旗│买入│25.5元
高盛│买入│24.5元
野村│买入│24.01元
摩根士丹利│与大市同步│22元
汇丰环球研究│持有│21元
瑞银│中性│21.40元-19.5元券商│观点
摩根大通│业绩胜预期为高质量，新业务价值率及现金流改善
大和│业绩质与量均见改善
中金│新业务价值超预期，代理人指标表现强劲
瑞信│执行纪律及增长可持续性为价值重估关键
华泰金控│投资业绩强劲及减税支撑盈利上升
花旗│中期业绩值得称道，业务质量显着改善
高盛│关注代理人质素
野村│增长强劲但利率风险上升
摩根士丹利│第二季业务增长动力显着放缓
汇丰环球研究│业绩及新业务价值胜预期
瑞银│新业务价值符预期，纯利增长受新税例推动
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