朗诗绿色(106.HK)国内外双轮驱动盈利锁定率较高
作者：安信国际分析师 黄焯伟
来源：安信国际
公司采用国内外双轮发展策略，美国资产占总资产约四分之一，占可售货值约11%，权益货值40%，有效分散地域风险。未结转金额约123亿元，短期盈利锁定比率较高。
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上半年业绩大至持平。2019上半年收入同比增长4%至20亿元。毛利率约26%，与去年同期持平。营业利润约1.6亿元，利润率约7.4%，同比下降6.5个百分点，主要原因是朗诗剥离长租公寓业务，因而衍生的一次性开支引起行政开支同比上升51%至3.9亿元，我们预计下半年有关开支比率会回复至正常水平。
扣除汇兑、投资性物业公允值收益、出售附属公司收益等非核心项目，核心净利润同比上升6%至2.6亿元。核心净利增长高于营业利润的主要原因是应占合联营企业业绩所致，有关收益同比上升115%至3.9亿元。净杠杆比率约50%，维持行业较低水平。现金对短债比约2.3倍，拥有较好的流动性。
1220亿元货值在手，下半年发力。截至2019年6月，总土储面积（可售部分）约670万平米，其中委托开发项目约290万平米，总可售货值估计约1220亿元。公司上半年销售额约115亿元，同比下降30%，去化率约60%，下半年将加大销售力度，全年销售增长目标暂时维持不变。以年初增长目标约10%计算，公司下半年将要达到300亿元之销售，对公司管理层的执行力是一大挑战。根据克而瑞数据，朗诗首7个月累计销售额（全口径）约130亿元，完成全年目标约30%。
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国内外发展，双轮驱动。国内方面，朗诗以深耕长三角作核心区域作发展策略，1220亿元货值的土储中，长三角约占53%。国外方面，朗诗在美国拥有27个项目，总土储可售面积约61万平米，货值约139亿元（或20亿美元），在全美房地产建筑商中位列前40，先后进入纽约、洛杉矶、旧金山等主要美国城市，主打中高端住宅市场。截至6月底，美国业务的资产占公司总资产约四分之一，占可售货值约11%，权益货值40%。上半年美国项目销售约19亿元，占总销售约16%。朗诗上半年共获取16个项目，其中8个在美国，稳健扩张中美业务版图，战略布局持续优化。
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轻资产模式在逆境中发辉优势。在减低项目发展风险上，公司积极参推动轻资产业务，以降低资本投入之压力，虽然在房地产市场银根从紧的环境下，中小发展商资金压力上升或会带来轻资产项目的推盘节奏，但毕竟公司在项目上没有（或轻量）投入资金，下行风险有限，亦不会对朗诗造成资金链负担，令净杠杆比率可以维持在较低水平。截至6月30日，未结转金额约123亿元，短期盈利锁定比率较高，公司现价约4倍2019年市盈率，股息率约5%。
风险提示：银根紧缩影响销售；国内楼市调控从紧；土储相对较少。
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