小米集团-W(1810.HK)2019H1财报点评业绩超预期手机逆势发力IoT优势强化维持增持评级目标价14.41港币
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：14.41 港币
本报告导读： 手机多品牌战略成效显著，市场份额逆势上升，5G 时代到来有望持续助力手机份额 提升和收入增长。 IoT 优势品类不断拓展，继电视之后笔记本电脑、空调等持续发力。
摘要：
投资建议：智能手机逆势增长，预计产品结构优化和 5G 到来将持续 助力手机业务市场份额提升和收入增长，AIoT 优势强化，互联网增值 服务强劲增长有望延续。考虑到智能手机整体出货量下滑，小幅下调 2019-2020 年收入预测至 2293（-6%） 、2910（-10%）亿元，给予 19 年调整后利润 28X PE 小幅下调目标价至 14.41 港币，维持增持评级。
H1 收入稳健增长符合预期，利润强劲增长超预期。 2019H1 收入 957.1 亿元，同比+20.2%，调整后净利 57.2 亿元，同比+49.8，对应 Q2 收 入同比+14.8%；调整后净利同比+71.7%，经调整利润率 7%（同比 +2.3pct）。 其中：手机营收同比+5%；IoT 与生活消费产品营收同比 +44%，其中电视及笔记本电脑收入+30.6%；互联网服务营收同比 +15.7%。各项业务毛利率同步提升使得综合毛利率+1.8pct 至 14%。 由于 2018Q2 存在一次性股份激励导致本期行政开支大幅减少，不考 虑相关影响 Q2 销售、行政、研发费用率 4.4%/1.4%/3%，基本持平。
手机市场份额逆势上涨，ASP 和盈利能力同步提升。根据 Strategy Analytics2019Q2 全球智能手机出货量同比下降 2.6%，而小米的市场 份额同比提升 0.3pct 至 9.4%，实属难能可贵。新品上市带动产品结 构优化，2019Q2 大陆和海外手机 ASP 分别提升 13.3%和 6.7%，售价 2000 元以上的智能手机占手机总收入的 32.3%（环比+0.5pct），产品 结构优化带动手机业务毛利率同比+1.4pct 至 8.1%。
AIoT 竞争优势强化，互联网增值服务增长强劲。2019 年 6 月 MIUI 月活用户 2.79 亿, 同比+34.7%/环比+6.8%，IoT 平台已连接的 IoT 设备达到 1.96 亿台，同比+69.5%/环比+14.6%。Q2 小米电视全球出货 量 270 万台（同比+41.1%），稳居大陆第一，世界前五, 笔记本电脑 大陆地区市场份额同比+3.2pct。2019H1 空调出货量已达约 100 万台。 Q2 互联网服务中广告/游戏/增值服务收入分别-0.6%/-4.1%/+89.9%。
风险提示：手机行业整体增长乏力竞争加剧，汇率波动较大等。
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