中国奥园(3883.HK)业绩结转快速增长给予“买入”评级目标价13.59港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：买入
目标价：13.59 港元
中国奥园 (03883.HK) 截至 2019 年 6 月 30 日，合同销售金额 为人民币 536.3 亿元，同比上升 33%。期内营业额为人民币 236.7 亿元，同比增长 73%。毛利润为人民币 70.5 亿元，同 比增长 81%；毛利润率为 29.8%。净利润为人民币 28.0 亿元， 同比增长 90%；净利润率为 11.8%。核心净利润为人民币 24.9 亿元，同比增长 79%；核心净利润率为 10.5%。
结转销售金额预计快速增长。截至 2019 年中期，中国奥园已 售未结金额为 1,390 亿元，结转周期约为两年，毛利率在 28% 左右。预计 2019 年下半年结转 250-300 亿元，预计净利率可 达 10%，权益比在 83%-85%的区间。预计全年结算收入在 500 亿元以上，同比增长超 60%；预计 2020 年结转 800 亿元左右。
全国均衡布局，聚焦大湾区。土储方面，截至 2019 年中期， 总建面达 4,012 万平方米，权益比 81%，大湾区占比 27%，总 货值 4,255 亿元，足够三年的发展。预计销售均价 10,080 元/ 平米，平均土地成本 2,321 元/平米，成本可控。此外城市更新 项目货值 2,197 亿元，其中约 718 亿元货值将在 2019 年转化为 土储。土地储备分布方面，按地价一二线及周边城市与国际城 市占比为 66%，三四线占比为 34%。
全年销售有望超额完成。2019 年中国奥园可售货值达 1,900 亿 元(其中下半年为 1,300 亿)，去化率 60%即可达到全年 1,150 亿 元的销售目标，同比增长 25%以上。2019 年 1-7 月，中国奥园 合约销售额为 602.8 亿元，同比增长 30%。
此外，中国奥园股息率预计将维持在 30%以上，短期没有配股 计划。目前，销售回款率为 78-80%，综合借贷成本 7.4%，净 负债率为 64.2%，总债务中信托融资占比 5%。
估值上，彭博市场预计 19/20 年 EPS 为 1.54/2.23 元人民币， 现价对应 19/20 年预测市盈率为 6.09/4.2 倍。近期市场预计每 股NAV区间为15.32港元-28.6港元，NAV折让区间为10%-50%。 彭博市场平均目标价为 13.59 港元，建议逢低买入。
风险：商品房销售疲弱，旧改项目进度不及预期，经济下滑，调 控加码等。
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