《大行報告》大和升海底撈(06862.HK)目標價至32元評級「持有」
大和發表的報告指,海底撈(06862.HK)上半年業績好壞參半,留意到受餐廳擴張步伐影響,期內經營去槓桿的壓力浮現,重申「持有」評級,相信其價值合理。該行指出公司計劃下半年加快餐廳開業,而上半年開業餐廳數目多過預期,加上一、二線城市同店銷售增長減慢,以及新店回本期由1-3個月延長至1-4個月,各項因素均令公司短期盈利可見性減低。
該行認為公司下半年開店仍維持進取步伐,反映公司存在自我競爭的風險,特別是一、二線城市。中期而言公司開店計劃仍未清晰,因為其擴張計劃是採取由下而上的方式,主要是由餐廳經理所推動。而公司策略性建立低成本庫存,有助帶動上半年毛利率維持穩定,但今年以來原材料成本持續上升,認為公司平均銷售單價下半年或只有單位數升幅,未必足夠彌補包括牛、羊肉在內的價格升幅。
該行將公司2019-21年淨利預測升2-4%,主要考慮公司有更多新店開張,現時估計2019-21年分將有300/250/200家分店開張,但將每股盈測下調1-2%,重申「持有」評級,目標價由23.5元升至32元。 ~
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