吉利汽车(0175.HK)品质提升助力厚积薄发首次覆盖给予“增持”评级目标价13.53港币
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：13.53 港币
本报告导读： 在近一年的行业销量增速放缓背景下，公司单车均价提升，口碑改善提升显著，背后 是公司产品质量的提升及产品升级的成功。
摘要：
目标价 13.53 港币，首次覆盖给予公司“增持”评级。2018 年下半年 乘用车行业出现销量下滑的趋势，整车股估值中枢下降至 5~7 倍，在 行业萧条背景下，吉利汽车在 ASP、客户口碑端不断提升，彰显其品 质提升及产品竞争力。预测 2019~2020 年 EPS 分别为 1.23、1.41 港元， 参考可比公司估值给予公司 2019 年 12 倍 PE、2.8 倍 PB，对应目标 价 13.86 港元。
三十余年积淀，厚积薄发。吉利汽车集团旗下现拥有吉利汽车品牌、 领克品牌和几何品牌，拥有宝腾汽车 49.9%的股份及全部经营管理权， 以及豪华跑车品牌路特斯 51%的股份。除 2014 年出现波动外，公司 销量整体稳步增长，市占率由 2.5%逐渐提升至 5.4%左右。2009~2018 年公司营业总收入由 161 亿港币增长到 1219 亿港币，复合增速超过 25%；净利润由19.04亿港币增长到143.27亿港币，复合增速接近30%。 其中仅在 2014 年，吉利汽车由于若干主要出口市场的汽车销量锐减 及其于中国营销的系统改革，出现了收入和利润的下滑。2018 年，随 着中国乘用车市场的需求整体下跌，公司的营业收入及净利润出现了 增速放缓，但仍维持在较高水平。
节能汽车助力公司二次腾飞。在新能源业务规划中，公司提出“蓝色 吉利行动战略”和“20200 战略”，到 2020 年吉利所供车型实现 100% 新能源化，任何车型可供消费者选择燃油版或新能源版本。基于各大 产品平台，吉利近两年新能源产品类别不断完善。2018~2020 年预计 至少推出 15 款车型。
催化剂： 新车型推出。
风险提示：新车型推广不及预期，毛利率水平不及预期，汇率波动导 致出现外汇亏损
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