北京首都机场股份(0694.HK)首次覆盖报告业绩将下滑价值已凸显给予“增持”评级目标价10.68港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：10.68 港元
本报告导读： 当下展望未来两年，大兴机场分流将令公司盈利显著下滑。两年后展望未来，首都机 场将是预期增速最高的机场公司。
摘要：
1、首都机场盈利有韧性，首次覆盖，“增持”评级。2018 年首都机场客 流量全国第一，但客源结构不如浦东机场。目前市值人民币 233 亿元，市 盈率远低于其他上市机场。未来两年大兴机场分流将导致盈利出现预期内 的下滑，但我们认为，消费者的时间价值，决定了高价值旅客偏好离市区 更近的首都机场，预计转场分流 1/4 的航班和旅客。非航业务潜力仍大， 有助于对冲分流压力。我们预测 2019-21 年 EPS 为人民币 0.51、0.41、0.34 元。综 DCF 估值法和可比公司 PB 法，公司的合理股价为 10.68 港元。
2、预计 2021 年之前转场分流 1/4 的航班和旅客。根据转场方案，大兴机 场将分流 1/3 航班和旅客。但考虑北京市居民的工作与生活的地域分布， 高价值旅客将首选首都机场出行。预计转场期间，首都机场将出现飞机大 型化、航班执行率和客座率提升，最终航班和旅客的 1/4 将分流到大兴机 场，首都机场的客流将超预期。
3、非航业务增加盈利韧性。首都机场远期新增时刻一半以上用于国际航 线，将推动国际旅客占比提高。居民收入提高和消费升级，都将推动免税 业务收入和利润增长。参考国际机场发展经验，除了免税之外，非免税零 售、广告、停车场等业务的货币化仍有潜力。
4、再投资与公司治理决定股东长期回报。首都机场过去三年合计经营现 金净流入折合每股 3.13 元，经营现金创造能力较强。三年累计每股分红 0.68 元，近年分红比例达到 40%。因此，新增资本开支的回报率，很大程 度上决定了股东的长期回报。此外，成本与收入科目都存在较大比例的持 续关联交易，关联交易合约续约条件，也会对即期盈利水平产生直接和重 要的影响。如果未来能够提升关联交易的透明度和可预测性，将对估值回 归产生积极的作用。
5、风险提示。关税政策与免税政策变动风险、收购关联方资产定价风险、 持续关联交易定价风险、转场航班超预期风险、民航机场收费政策调整风 险和扩建资本开支超预期风险。
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