中国宏桥(1378.HK)首次覆盖报告铝业巨舰再度启航首次覆盖给予“增持”评级目标价9.20港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：9.20港元
本报告导读： 铝产能仍居行业首位、自备电成本优势短期难以撼动、产业集群优势越加凸显，我们 认为铝供给侧改革后的宏桥显被市场低估。
摘要：
首次覆盖增持评级。我们认为 2019 供需边际好转将促使铝价触底反弹， 公司为铝行业龙头将充分受益于铝价上行。综合 PB 和 FCFF 估值法， 首次覆盖给予目标价人民币 8.26 元（折合 9.20 港币/股），预测公司 2019-2021 年 EPS 0.69/0.82/1.05 元，对应 2019-2021 年 PE 12/10/8 倍估值， 当前价格 5.25 港币/股，折合人民币 4.71 元/股，空间 75%，首次覆盖增 持评级。
与众不同的认识。市场普遍认为供给侧改革对公司影响巨大，其竞争优势 或已荡然无存，而我们认为公司仍为行业龙头，其产能、自备电、产业集 群优势短期内难以撼动，竞争优势目前已被显著低估：①公司 646 万吨电 解铝产能仍位居行业首位，铝价上行盈利弹性巨大，弹性测算显示，铝价 每上行 500 元/吨，公司归母净利将增加约 16 亿元；②公司自备电或将征 收（补缴）过网费及政府性基金一直是市场担忧所在，但我们认为在煤价 上行，自备电相对成本优势已明显缩减及国家努力降低工业企业用电成本 大前提下，公司短期内补缴相关费用的可能性较小，自备电成本优势短期 内较难撼动；③公司产业集群优势带来的降本增效或被市场低估，上游原 材料氧化铝、阳极采购价明显低于市场价，下游临近加工客户，高铝水占 比有效节约运输、重熔成本，除电力外，公司上下游成本优势同样突出， 竞争优势极其明显。
2019 供需边际好转，铝价有望触底反弹。我们认为铝价有望在 2019 迎来反 弹：供给端受限于全行业盈利尚不乐观，电解铝企业减产意愿加强及新增 产能投产放缓，或增量有限，而需求端 2019 房地产竣工回暖有望带动需 求边际改善，铝价有望触底反弹，公司身为龙头将充分受益。 催化剂：铝价上行
风险提示：铝消费不及预期，公司自备电补缴政府性基金及过网费的风险
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