《业绩前瞻》券商料农行(01288.HK)中期可多赚4%关注农村贷款资产质量
市场预期农业银行(01288.HK)将於下周二(27日)公布中期业绩，憧憬受惠人行定向降准释放长期资金用於发放民营及小微企业贷款，本网综合7间券商预测，料农业银行今年上半年纯利料介乎1,182.3亿元至1,220亿人民币(下同)，较2018年同期1,159.76亿元，按年上升1.9%至5.2%；中位数1,210亿元，按年增4.3%。
综合4间券商预测，料农业银行今年上半年料净利息收入介乎2,361亿元至2,427.2亿元，较2018年同期2,338.33亿元，按年上升1%至3.8%；中位数2,387.5亿元，按年升2.1%。但券商关注农行业绩三项要点，包括资产质素、普惠金融业务表及农村贷款资产质量。
【聚焦三要点 不良率关键】
摩根大通估计，农行中期纯利可按年多赚4.3%至1,208.17亿元，料净利息收入增2%至2,384.92亿元、料净息差录2.18%按年收窄18个基点、估计非利息收入可按年升27%至939.45亿元，料其上半年股本回报率录14.2%，成本收入比率按年跌38个基点至32.4%，料其一级资本充足率录11.78%，按年跌1个基点，料不良贷款比率按年跌1个基点至1.61%。
摩通表示，投资者对农行中期业绩将聚焦三点，第一是资产质素，不良率能否回落、第二是普惠金融业务表现，第三是农村业务，塯意其相关业务资产质素及营运效率能否呈改善。
受惠人行定向降准释放长期资金用於发放民营及小微企业贷款，中金早前发表报告表示，农行普惠小微贷款利率4.63%，考虑政策优惠後，预计为5.14%-5.48%。若未来不良率持平於目前的2.65%，基本可做到保本微利。
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本网综合7间券商预测，料农业银行今年上半年纯利料介乎1,182.3亿元至1,220亿元，较2018年同期1,159.76亿元，按年上升1.9%至5.2%；中位数1,210亿元，按年增4.3%。
券商│今年上半年纯利预测(人民币)│按年变幅
瑞银│1,220亿元│+5.2%
建银国际│1,211亿元│+4.4%
建银国际│1,210.05亿元│+4.3%
招银国际│1,210亿元│+4.3%
野村│1,209.5亿元│+4.3%
摩根大通│1,208.17亿元│+4.3%
美银美林│1,182.3亿元│+1.9%
按农行2018年上半年纯利1,159.76亿人民币推算
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综合4间券商预测，料农业银行今年上半年料净利息收入介乎2,361亿元至2,427.2亿元，较2018年同期2,338.33亿元，按年上升1%至3.8%；中位数2,387.5亿元，按年升2.1%。
券商│今年上半年净利息收入预测(人民币)│按年变幅
瑞银│2,427.2亿元│+3.8%
美银美林│2,390.13亿元│+2.2%
摩根大通│2,384.92亿元│+2%
建银国际│2,361亿元│+1%
按农行2018年上半年净利息收入2,338.33亿人民币推算
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