银河娱乐(0027.HK)使Q2表现胜预期发展空间可期
机构：兴业证券
投资要点
⚫ 银河娱乐 2Q19 营业收入/经调整 EBITDA 分别按年-5%/持平，按季 +1%/+9%，胜市场预期。按季度看，受高赢率推动，公司 Q2 经调整 EBITDA 按季上升 9%，若不考虑赢率因素，公司 Q2 经调整 EBITDA 仍按年升 3%， 季度表现胜预期，促使公司 19H1 期内营业收入至 262 亿港元，同比下跌 6.55%；经调整 EBITDA 为 83 亿港元，按年下跌 3.8％。公司期内收入结构优 化，加上高赢率影响，促使 EBITDA 利润率和净利润率均有所增长。
⚫ 公司大众博彩表现稳健+VIP 高赢率，抵消高端博彩疲软表现。公司 1H19 录 得博彩净收益/毛收入 222.34/295.81 亿港元，同比-6.7%/-11.4%。其中，VIP/ 中场/角子机录得毛收入 147.54 /146.11 /12.13 亿港元，同比-24.8%/7.8%/3.3%。 公司期内转码金额按年跌 33.7%，但 VIP 赢率显著提升。非博彩业务方面， 公司期内录得收入 26.53 亿港元（yoy+3.15%），酒店客房入住率接近 100%。
⚫ 路氹三期酒店或提前开业，潜在项目稳健推进，保障公司中长期发展空间。 公司于去年开始积极推进对“澳门银河”和“澳门星际酒店”的 15 亿提升工 程计划，翻修中场和非博彩设施，虽短期内对其业绩有所影响，但预计其负 面影响将逐步减弱。此外，公司业绩会表示银河三期客房有望从 2021 年末提 前至 2021 年初开业。届时，公司接待能力可大幅提升进一步保障中场业务的 增长。此外，公司亦持续积极推进日本潜在项目的进程。
⚫ 我们的观点：受高赢率推动，公司 Q2 表现胜市场预期。虽澳门银河及星际 酒店的翻新工程对其造成短期负面影响，但预计其影响将逐步减弱，随着 工程的逐步完成，预计公司市占份额将回升。短期看，翻新工程有利于银 河进一步提升现有物业质量，吸引人流。中期看，公司银河三期酒店部分 或提前开业有望显著减缓公司房间供不应求的态势，强势推动其市场份额 提升。长期看，公司相较同业具备更清晰的海外项目规划，横琴项目亦有 望受益于湾区概念的落地，加上公司作为中资企业续牌风险相对较小，在 澳门政府换届及澳门回归 20 年之际，具备更多的机遇，更少的风险。基 于公司优质的执行能力及稳健的财务表现，我们认为银河发展空间可期。 从估值看，公司现股价对应 FY19 彭博一致预期 EV/EBITDA 约 11.4 倍， 尚未反应公司领先行的发展空间，具备较强吸引力，建议投资者关注。
风险提示： 1、宏观经济及贸易政策波动；2、新项目延期；3、竞争加剧
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