《大行報告》瑞銀下調奧園(03883.HK)目標價至10.7元評級「中性」
瑞銀發表研究報告指,出席了奧園(03883.HK)業績簡報會,管理層透露了今年8月份合約銷售可能達到70億元人民幣,意味著按年僅錄得2%增長,相對7月份增長11%,明顯進一步放緩。管理層亦見到下半年三、四線城市物業銷售及價格,將面對更大下行壓力。
該行認為,奧園疲弱的銷售勢頭,可以預視其他三、四線城市佔比較多的開發商最新趨勢,包括:碧桂園(02007.HK)、新城發展(01030.HK)及富力(02777.HK)。基於奧園首八月合約銷售情況,換言之9月至12月需要錄得23%的年增幅,公司才可達到全年1,141億元人民幣的銷售目標。
該行將奧園2019年至2021年每股基本盈利預測,分別調整-3%/-3%/+1%,至1.37元人民幣、1.98元人民幣及2.55元人民幣,反映銷售及行政開支增加及2020年至2021年合約銷售增長減少。同時,將其目標價由11.3元下調至10.7元,維持評級「中性」。
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