康哲药业(867.HK)上半年业绩超预期
作者:安信国际分析师 李艾蔚
来源:安信国际
安信国际近日发布康哲药业(867.HK)报告,短期内带量采购对业绩影响的预期明显改善,中长期公司引进产品储备丰富、销售渠道成熟可支撑稳定增长。目前股价分别对应7.4倍和6.8倍PE,估值处于历史低位,建议关注。
1
2019上半年业绩超出市场预期。公司上半年收入增长11.7%至29.6亿元;毛利增长17.7%至22.2亿元;净利润增长22.2%至11.7亿元,超出市场预期。若还原两票制影响,收入和毛利分别增长14.4%/16.0%至34.0亿元/20.2亿元。毛利率同比增长3.9ppt至74.8%,主要由于两票制推行收入增加。若还原两票制,毛利率增加0.8ppt至59.5%,主要受益于进口药关税税率下降和增值税率下降。净利率上升3.4ppt,主要由于其他收入和毛利率上升。宣派中期股息每股0.1833元,派息率40%。
2
各类产品增长稳健,带量采购对核心品种潜在影响好于此前预期。心脑血管类产品收入增长3.7%至13.4亿元,还原两票制14.7%增长至19.4亿元;消化类产品同比增长19.6%至10.3亿元;眼科类同比增长9.5%至1.2亿元;皮肤类产品同比增长16.5%至8,603万元;其他产品增长21.8%至3.9亿元。带量采购对核心品种波依定和黛力新的影响预期有改善,主要由于1)第二批带量采购预计在明年推出,时间预期推后;2)集采政策由独家中标变为多家中标,且截止目前波依定没有竞品通过一致性评价,黛力新只有一家竞品通过,降价幅度将好于预期。
销售网络持续扩大。销售费用率增加2.1ppt至29.8%(还原两票制增加0.2ppt至20.2%)。销售网络覆盖全国57,000家医院及医疗机构,较18年底增加约4,000家。公司持续对销售团队培训升级,优化薪酬体系,为未来创新产品的学术推广蓄能。零售渠道的建设和布局也在稳步推进。
3
加速研发管线构建,长远发展动力充足。公司通过股权合作或购买权益获得创新和仿制药产品权益。期内包括股权投资、权益购买、自主研发的研发开支共约1.68亿元,占还原两票制收入的4.9%。未来产品线将分为创新药、复杂仿制药和一般仿制药三大板块。创新药方面,通过参股投资7家公司,和购买2家公司的许可权益,共获得13个产品权益。其中SunPharma治疗干眼症的环孢菌素滴眼液和治疗中重度银屑病的IL23单抗产品已在美国获批上市。用于创伤性脑损伤的便携神经调节刺激器PoNS已在加拿大获批上市;用于癫痫的鼻内地西泮NRL-1美国上市申请审核中。公司将陆续开展国内上市申请程序或开展临床试验。
4
投资建议:我们认为短期内带量采购对业绩影响的预期明显改善,中长期公司引进产品储备丰富、销售渠道成熟可支撑稳定增长。彭博预计2019-21年调整后净利润分别为20.97亿/22.99亿/23.21亿元,CAGR5.2%。目前股价分别对应7.4倍和6.8倍PE,估值处于历史低位,建议关注。
风险提示:进口药品注册不顺利;在研产品研发失败;现有产品销售增长不及预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.