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大摩对香港地产行业看法降至与大市同步
格隆汇 08-20 11:14

大摩发表的报告指,将香港地产行业看法降至与大市同步,认为即使近期股价反弹但估值仍然吸引,惟现时股价并未反映经济增长进一步恶化及楼价下跌的因素。该行的经济师将本港今年GDP预测下调至收缩0.3%,而早前预测为增长1%,并预期下半年GDP将按年跌1.1%,现时该行估计到明年首季楼价将较六月份高位下跌最多一成,而今年第三及第四季零售销售将分别按年跌13%及8%。现时该行较倾向写字楼多於住宅及零售行业,认为其租赁架构较稳定,相信资产负债表较强、股息率较高,以及有潜在回购的公司可跑赢同业,倾向选择恒隆地产(00101.HK)、太古地产(01972.HK)及新鸿基地产(00016.HK),多于九龙仓置业(01997.HK)及恒基地产(00012.HK)。

在住宅楼价方面,该行指出今年以来中原城市领先指数(CCL)按年升8%,但在未来数月有机会下跌最多一成,而该行最新估计今年CCL升幅将由早前预测的10%降至2%,而2020年升幅则为5%,主要基於市场气氛转弱,恒指呈弱势而股市交投亦见缩减,认为若恒指在现水平维持稳定,CCL跌幅亦会较细。

该行认为香港零售销售第三季将按年下跌13%,跌幅较次季的4%有所扩大,主要因为人民币贬值、贸易摩擦升温及本地事件均拖累了本地气氛及旅客消费。而在写字楼市场方面,中环区租金料在下半年大致稳定,而业主亦不急於减租,因为大部分今年到期的租约已获续租。

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