腾讯音乐(TME.N)营收放缓付费率强势提升泛音乐娱乐生态彰显
机构：兴业证券
投资要点
公司业绩概要：1）2019Q2，腾讯音乐总营收达 59 亿元，同比增长 31%，环比 下降 2.67%。略低于市场预期；2）在线音乐服务收入达 15.62 亿元，占比略有 下滑（达 26.5%），同比增长 20.25%，其中会员订阅收入达 8 亿元（yoy：31.5%）， 其他收入达 7.62 亿元（yoy：10.3%）；社交娱乐服务收入达 43.36 亿元，同比增 长 35.3%，环比增长 5%。3）销售+管理费用率共计 17.8%；4）毛利率为 32.9%， 环比下降 2.5 个百分点，Non-IFRS 归母净利润达 11.3 亿元，Non-IFRS 归母净 利率为 19.1%。
付费用户率强势提升，MAU 环比略有下滑，ARPPU 持稳。2019Q2，在线音乐 业务的月活用户数达 6.52 亿，环比下滑 0.3%；付费率提升至 4.8%，环比上升 0.5 个百分点，付费用户达 31,00 万；公司在线音乐月度 ARPPU 为人民币 8.6 元，与上年同期的人民币 8.7 元相比下降 1.1%，但环比上升了 0.3 元。目前， 腾讯音乐总付费用户数仅次于 Spotify、Apple Music，位居全球第三。
多元内容扩充，跨界成立“影音+”，泛音乐娱乐生态彰显。腾讯音乐于去年三 季度成立了“影音+”联盟，截止至 19 年二季度，已为超 20 部影视剧发行近 100 首歌曲；此外，腾讯的原创音乐人平台也累计了近 40 万首曲库，其总播放 量已达 1,000 亿次，日播放量同比增长 200%。此外，公司也添加了包括如“乐 队的夏天”、“声入人心 2”等音乐类综艺节目、短视频和音频产品类有声读物 和播客，扩充了更多内容。
投资建议：我们看好腾讯音乐未来的付费用户增长和其持续供应丰富的高质量 内容的能力，以及其在数字音乐市场的龙头地位，建议投资者积极关注。
风险提示：直播行业监管收紧；内容成本上升；付费率增长不及预期；反垄断调查
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