长飞光纤光缆(6869.HK)1H19业绩前瞻集采价格略有回升业绩仍受行业供需压制维持“审慎增持”评级目标价12.40港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：12.40 港元
投资要点
⚫ 1H19 业绩前瞻：预计收入 41.2 亿元，净利润 4.48 亿元。我们判断，19Q1 的光纤光缆价格贴近于去年运营商的集采价格，而今年集采价格大幅下 滑，跌价的影响在 Q2 逐步显现，下半年或将继续承压。考虑到中国移动 的集采实际从 5 月开始进行，晚于我们预期，我们上调了 1H19 的盈利预 测至净利 4.48 亿元。
⚫ 中国电信 2019 年室外光缆集采价格为 56.5-69.6 元/芯公里，同比下滑约 40%，但较此前中国移动集采价格有所回升。中国电信 8 月 7 日公布了室 外光缆（2019年）集采结果，此次采购规模 5100万芯公里，单价为 56.5-69.6 元/芯公里（不含税），较此前中国移动的集采价格（54.6-63.5 元/芯公里， 不含税）略有回升，但仍低于去年的 114 元/芯公里（不含税） 。我们预计 今年光纤光缆价格已经见底，但是短期内价格难以快速反弹。
⚫ 2019 年国内光纤光缆需求量有望持平，价格严重受压，行业尚未反转。 国内在 2019 年 5G 建设规模有望达到 10-15 万站，规模较小，对光纤光缆 的需求有限；但同期新建的 4G 基站有望达到 80 万站（去年共约 44 万站）， 拉动光纤光缆需求。由于中国移动光纤入户建设基本完成，固网侧需求缺 乏驱动，我们预计全年光纤光缆需求与 2018 年持平，但是由于各厂商新 增产能逐步释放，供需关系仍将在 1-2 年内压制光纤光缆价格。
⚫ 投资建议：下调目标价 42.9%至 12.40 港元，维持“审慎增持”评级。我 们预计 2019-21 年公司营业收入将达到 77.6/84.4/97.2 亿元人民币，归母净 利润将达到 7.2/9.8/13.3 亿元人民币。由于行业供需关系的拐点可能晚于 我们此前预期，下调 2019 年目标价至 12.40 港元，对应 2019-21 年 PE 倍 数为 11.0/10.1/7.4 倍，距 2019 年 8 月 13 日收盘价有 5.8%的涨幅，维持“审 慎增持”评级。
风险提示：行业产能过剩，产品价格急剧下跌；行业竞争加剧，产品价格下跌； 5G 建设不及预期，光纤光缆需求疲软。
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