摩通濠赌股累挫后估值已低首选银娱(0027.HK)
摩根大通发表报告表示,近来濠赌股投资气氛惨淡,股价过去三周累挫20%至25%,相对于恒指期间跌12%。该行认为,中美贸易摩擦、人民币贬值及香港政局不稳等,均是拖累板块表现疲弱的原因。报告又指,预计今年访澳旅客达4000至4100万人次,按年上升约15%,当中内地旅客占比超过70%,香港旅客则占18%。然而,内地旅客之消费力则占博彩行业收益高达85%。至于经香港前往澳门的旅客占整体12%至13%,此部分旅客或受香港部分活动影响。不过,该行认为中介转码数自7月中开始表现波动,似乎是受到海外代理/网上博彩行为等因素影响,而不是受到香港政治因素影响。
该行补充,濠赌股短期内难免表现波动,惟相信估值已达“
便宜到不容忽视
”的地步,而且大部分负面因素已出现且属周期性问题。即使预期短线的潜在下行风险,但考虑到长线投资价值,认为现时估值已反映太多市场恐惧。该行首选为银娱(0027.HK)
,目标价为65港元,予“
增持
”评级。
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