金蝶国际(0268.HK)2019年中报点评云业务放量趋势不变星空云即将盈利苍穹云尚在起量维持“增持”评级目标价8.6港币
机构：光大证券
评级：增持
目标价：8.6 港币
◆云业务规模高速扩张然亏损率扩大，致公司整体利润承压 1H19公司实现营收 14.85亿元人民币，同比增长 16.1%，较彭博一致预期 的15.01亿低约 1%。经营利润率同比下降4.7个百分点至8.3%，经营利润 同比下降 26%至1.2亿元，较彭博一致预期的1.5亿低约19%，主要由于云 业务经营亏损率未如预期收窄反而扩大。Non-GAAP 净利润达 1.49 亿，同 比下降 30.1%；合 Non-GAAP EPS为0.046元，同比下降33.5%。
◆传统 ERP 业务增长放缓，但依旧维持稳定盈利能力 传统ERP业务营收增长放缓，同比增速由 2H18的7%继续降至1H19的7%， 主要由于传统 ERP 客户尤其是中小企业向云端迁移压力显现；但依旧维持稳 定的盈利能力，经营利润率为 22.6%（vs 1H18 21.7%/2H18 22.7%）；净利 率为 20.1%（vs 1H18 19.7%/2H18 19.4%）。
◆云业务规模高速扩张，星空云有望扭亏为盈，苍穹云尚在起量 云业务营收同比上升 55%至 5.5 亿，营收占比扩大至 37%；由于苍穹云研发 及销售费用增加，1H19云业务盈利改善不及预期，经营亏损率由2H18的17% 扩大至 1H19的23%。核心云ERP业务同比增长 56%至4.0亿，其中聚焦中 小企业市场的一代星空云拓展顺利，仍为营收贡献主要来源，营收同比增长 50%至3.84 亿，付费客户数突破1.1 万、续费率超80%，公司指引 2H19 有 望扭亏为盈；专攻大型企业市场的二代苍穹云仍在初期起量阶段，1H19 营收 突破 15 百万，累计签约客户43 家，后期放量情况仍需观察。
◆估值及评级 我们维持 19~21 年 Non-GAAP EPS 预测分别为 0.09、0.10、0.11 元。基 于分部估值法，参考美国 SaaS 行业平均 PS，考虑到公司云业务通过产品 矩阵丰富，拓展大型企业市场有望驱动增长加快，给予云业务19年15x PS； 参考全球 ERP 行业龙头 PE 水平，结合公司传统 ERP 增长放缓且盈利暂 时承压，给予公司 ERP 业务 19 年 12x 的 PE，维持目标价 8.6 港币，维持 “增持”评级。
◆风险提示：传统 ERP 行业竞争加剧；云业务发展不及预期。
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