港股策论8月第3期美债收益率曲线倒挂这次不一样？
机构：广发证券
报告摘要：
港股策略周论： 本周美债 10Y-2Y 收益率倒挂引发市场高度关注，本次期限利差倒挂的 宏观背景有哪些不同，对后续大类资产价格走势意味着什么？
与历次期限利差倒挂时期的宏观背景相比，本次存在多点差异： 1）Fed 于倒挂前已完成首次降息，提前宽松以应对经济衰退风险。2）本次期限利 差收窄主要源于期限溢价差下行，与以往存在结构性差异。 现在即下定结论美国经济将陷入衰退或为时过早。
相对较低的居民杠 杆，个人消费支出韧性、“预防式降息”提前开启等因素能够降低美国经济 衰退的风险；但本轮倒挂也存在若干不利的条件。
大类资产与港股——表现各异，波动率增强： 1）股市不一定下跌， 但波动率上行难以避免；2）宽松预期带动，债市回报较好；3）黄金价格 并不必然上涨，多因素实际利率、避险情绪、商品属性共同影响价格波动； 4）美元指数多走强，但这次可能“不一样”。
市场策略：短期走势更为复杂，但长线估值吸引力提升。中期继续看 好香港中资股“盈利稳、估值升”带来的市场机会。板块配置上，中期关 注“确定性”主线，短期维持防御类配置（保险、医药、中资高股息板块） 的同时，关注部分超跌低估值板块的反弹机会，如地产、汽车、博彩等。
市场概览与情绪跟踪 本周（8.12-8.16）恒生指数下跌 0.79%，板块方面，恒生一级行业除 电讯业、地产建筑业外全部下跌，原材料业跌幅最大。HVIX 指数、主板沽 空比例小幅上涨，港股看跌看涨期权比例小幅下降。
宏观流动性与估值跟踪 本周（8.12-8.16）美元兑人民币汇率基本稳定，10 年期美债收益率大 幅下跌至 1.55%，中美利差走阔至 147BP。WTI 原油价格 54.9 美元/桶。 恒生指数 PE 9.26 倍，低于历史均值。
一致预期 EPS 跟踪 本周（8.12-8.16）彭博对于恒生指数与国企指数 19 年 EPS 增速一致 预期小幅上调。
南下北上资金跟踪 本周（8.12-8.16）北上资金小幅净流入 9.1 亿元，南下资金大幅净流 入 168.1 亿元，港股成交额中南下资金参与占比小幅上升。
风险提示
美元、美债利率上行；国内信用收紧；盈利不达预期、贸易格局恶化。
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