摩通下调联通(0762.HK)目标价至11.5港元评级“增持”
摩根大通发表报告示,中国联通(00762.HK)管理层谈及潜在与中国电信(00728.HK)共建5G网络,认为是向市场释放正面讯息,缓和对5G资本开支负担的忧虑,但同时亦意味市场对5G基站及铁塔需求的预期存在下行风险。
该行认为,联通有很大机会未能达到今明两年的服务收入目标,而明年盈利目标亦有机会未能达到,主要因为流动服务势头较弱以及5G相关开支较高,而现时股价已反映对公司财务及资本开支较「熊」的看法,维持“增持”评级,但将目标价由12港元降至11.5港元,此按综合方式作估值,相当预测今年市盈率23倍。

联通主席在业绩发布会上指出与中电信潜在共建共享5G网络,而其所提及的业务模式似乎可行,并可节省资本开支,他指出5G网络成本达4,000亿至6,000亿元人民币(下同),而全国共享的话每家营运商则可节省2,000亿至2,700亿元,在最理想的情况下如所有地方都能共同营运,合起来的网络只需要达到中国移动(00941.HK)的规模。此外,由於两家公司所获的频谱接近,能有效节省维修开支而在网络质素上亦具协同效应。
摩根大通指出,联通将今年5G基站目标由2万至3万座增至逾4万座,但维持全年资本开支指引,意味早前的5G资本开支预算已假设需兴建3.8万座基站。另外,公司指最便宜的5G套餐将定价在190元,意味5G短期将只针对高端客户,而公司亦无意於今年为5G手机提供补贴。
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