2019年中报点评|旭辉控股集团(0884.HK)业绩增长土储丰沛配置价值凸显维持“买入”评级
机构：长江证券
评级：买入
报告要点
事件描述
2019上半年公司实现营业收入200.63亿元，同比增长8.9%；股东应占核心净利润28.70亿元，同比增长17.3%；核心ROE为22.5%，同比持平；中期每股股息10港分，同比增加43%。
事件评论
业绩持续增长，盈利能力稳定。2019上半年实现营业收入200.63亿元，同比增长8.9%；股东应占核心净利润28.70亿元，同比增长17.3%。从收入结构来看，物业销售收入180亿元，同比增长3.6%，占收入比重同比下降4.58pct至89.9%，租金收入1.75亿元，同比增长207%，占收入比重同比提升0.56pct至0.87%，租金增长主要来自上海LCM置汇旭辉广场新的租金贡献。盈利能力方面，2019上半年公司核心ROE同比持平为22.5%，毛利率（经调整）34.5%，同比增长0.8pct，核心净利率14.3%，同比增长1pct，公司利润率提高主因盈利更高的楼盘交付、土地成本合理、融资成本低、改善质量及品牌而实现产品溢价。
销售增长，拿地审慎。2019上半年公司合同销售金额同比增长33.9%至884.4亿元，其中一二线及准二线占比90%，销售面积同比增长17.5%至508.8万平，平均售价17382元/平方米，同比增长13.5%。拿地方面，2019上半年公司收购土地规划总建面770万平，同比下降11.49%，总地价372.78亿元，同比下降29.67%，平均土地收购成本4848元/平方米，同比下降20.52%。2019上半年地销比42.15%，同比下降38.13pct，显示公司拿地审慎。2019下半年可售货值达2300亿元，其中一二线及准二线占比近89%，将有效保障全年销售目标完成。
现金管控高效，净负债率微增但整体债务结构合理可控。2019上半年公司销售回款率高达95%，相比2018年末增长8pct，期末现金存量同比增长22%至543亿元，现金短债比为3.3倍，与2018年末持平，维持行业优秀水平。负债方面，2019上半年公司净负债率69.5%，相比2018年末提升2.3pct，加权融资成本5.9%，相比2018年末提升0.1pct，整体财务管理稳健，债务结构合理，风险可控。投资建议：盈利改善，土储丰沛，配置价值凸显。公司业绩持续增长，盈利能力改善，现金管控高效，财务结构稳健；截至2019年7月末总土储6300万平，总货值9800亿元，丰富土储将有效保障后续业绩增长持续性。预计公司2019-2021年核心净利润同比增速24.8%、25.1%、21.5%，核心EPS为0.88、1.10、1.33元（最新股本），对应当前股价PE为4.55、3.64、2.99倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：
1.流动性环境或存不确定性；
2.公司下半年销售或存不确定性。
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