法巴对债息倒挂是否衰退有效指标存疑短期续看淡全球股市
隔晚美股急挫,美国国债孳息曲线倒挂,触发投资者忧虑经济衰退。法巴财富管理亚洲区首席投资官Prashant Bhayani等发表报告指,美国两年期与十年期国债收益曲线属最受关注衰退指标之一,但该行称,美债孳息或被量化宽松(QE)所扭曲,对其是否仍是衰退的有效指标存疑。
法巴称,参考历史,在两年期与十年期国债孳息曲线倒挂出现後,标指平均在13个月之後见顶,而美国经济平均在21个月之後陷入衰退。
该行称,随着贸易冲突升级,无疑衰退风险正在上升,对全球增长有负面影响。该行基本情境料今年全球增长同步放缓,但不是即将陷入衰退。法巴称,现时市场憧憬美联储9月将大幅减息50点子。在美联储7月减息後,看到全球央行争相仿傚。即使全球「放水」能否应对增长放缓效果成疑,这或对下行风险带来缓冲。在提振增长而言,财政政策是有其需要。
法巴维持对全球股市短期负面看法,考虑到全球众多不确定性,包括贸易战、英国脱欧、政治事件等。估值方面,调整幅度仍未至吸引水平,特别是美股。该行重申健康的多元投资组合,在应对波动市的重要性。维持看好金价及短期美债。而具防守力高收益股及选择性亚洲债券仍相对具韧性。
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