华润水泥控股(1313.HK)旺季前的筑底阶段维持“收集“评级目标价至8.20港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:收集
目标价:8.20港元
2019年上半年股东利润同比下滑6.1%,符合我们的预期。收入同比下降6.0%至174.10亿港元。水泥产品的销量好于预期,但平均售价受到了人民币贬值的拖累。混凝土分部的表现好于预期,部分抵消了水泥产品的收缩。整体毛利率同比微降0.5个百分点至38.9%。公司宣派中期股息每股0.260港元,对应48.0%的派息比率。
基建需求预计将得到提振,但高库存水平可能阻碍两广地区潜在的提价。我们预计库存水平将不会进一步上扬,因为在八月底部之后出货率预计将得到提升。我们维持对下游需求的预期,即基建需求将在2019年第三季度之后逐渐释放,而房地产需求尽管监管持续趋紧,但仍将大体保持稳定。
将2019/2020/2021年的每股盈利预测分别略微下调2.7%/3.3%/5.1%。对于水泥产品,我们主要下调了平均售价的假设以反映人民币贬值的潜在影响。另一方面,我们降低了对销售及管理费用的假设,以反映2019年上半年好于预期的费用控制。
下调目标价至8.20港元,维持“收集”评级。我们的DCF模型给出的公允价值为每股10.64港元。我们认为华润水泥目前存在低估,且公司的高派息将为投资者提供良好的防御性。我们最新的目标价对应7.5倍/7.0倍/6.7倍的2019-2021年市盈率和1.4倍的2019年市净率。

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