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惠誉料下半年内地钢铁生产大减利润率续受压
阿思达克 08-13 16:06

评级机构惠誉发表报告,指中国钢铁生产於今年上半年创新高後,下半年料大幅倒退。据国统局数据,粗钢及钢产品上半年生产同比各升9.9%及11.4%,至分别4.92亿吨及5.87亿吨。不过,钢产品出口按年跌2.6%至约3,500万吨,反映生产增长主要用於国内需求。

惠誉表示,留意到建筑用钢材支撑生产增长,钢筋及钢丝绳生产同比各升19.3%及14.6%;而主要用於汽车工业的冷压类产品,仅升2.6%。这与房地产板块固定资产投资(FAI)10.9%的升幅一致。

不过报告称,料有三大因素压抑下半年钢铁生产,即住宅建筑放慢、环保举措带来生产限制,以及钢铁商为保护利润而进行市场主导的减产。

惠誉预期,内地下半年住宅建筑放慢,特别是三、四线城市,料拖累房地产板块FAI全年增幅。不过,料部分被基建FAI加快所抵销。而内地空气质素目标亦致河北多个主要钢铁生产城市,在7至8月期间执行或宣布限产,幅度最高达50%。另上半年钢商毛利率大降,主要由於铁矿石价格大升。据中国钢铁工业协会数据,钢铁业上半年收入同比增11%,惟纯利则跌20%。

报告预期,本地需求疲弱及贸易冲突加剧,在今年余下时间将导致钢铁销售均价下滑及压抑利润率,特别是对长钢材生产商而言,主要用於建筑业。

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