2019年中报点评|丘钛科技(1478.HK)大客户拉货动能充足驱动业绩反转兑现且幅度超预期维持“买入”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
目标价：9.3港币
◆1H19营收增速超预期，盈利如期改善
1H19营收50.6亿元人民币，同比大幅增长58%，较彭博一致预期的49.6亿高约2%，主要由于CCM出货量大幅增长及FRM产品结构改善。毛利率同比上升7个百分点至8.2%，主要由于摄像模组产能利用率提升、指纹模组产品结构明显改善以及生产自动化升级改造渐见成效。受主营业务毛利率大幅增长及联营公司盈利影响，归母净利润为1.81亿元，净利率由1H18的-1.6%上升至3.6%。
◆大客户拉货动能充足，驱动CCM业务高速成长
1H19 CCM营收同比大幅上升52%，主要得益于出货量增长强劲同比上升78%，10MP及以上出货占比由1H18/2H18的39.7%/45.9%提高至46.8%。ASP维持下跌态势，同比下跌14.5%，主要由于多摄分拆供应方案渗透导致公司多摄出货占比偏低；环比继续下跌6.4%，主要由于多摄出货占比继续下降，以及10MP及以上出货占比环比提升幅度有限、3D结构光项目上量不及预期。2019年CCM出货量将延续高速增长，公司上调指引同比增速不低于50%；伴随核心客户中高端项目上量、像素升级及三摄渗透率提升，公司产品结构升级确定性不变，公司维持全年10MP及以上出货占比不低于50%指引，但考虑多摄拆分趋势持续导致公司多摄出货占比提升难度加大，ASP下行压力仍存。综合出货及ASP表现，我们预计19年摄像模组业务营收同比增速有望达50%；叠加产能爬坡、自动化导入效应显现，19年全年盈利改善趋势明确。
◆屏下指纹出货占比扩大，驱动FRMASP大幅提升带来业绩释放
1H19指纹模组业务营收同比大幅上升81%，其中出货量同比下跌17%，ASP同比/环比大幅上升117%/53%，主要得益于产品结构优化明显，高ASP屏下指纹出货占比由2H18的20%大幅上升至51%。19年伴随屏下指纹市场渗透率提升明显以及主动调整，全年产品结构优化有保障（公司指引屏下指纹出货占比不低于40%）。公司FRM业务以产品结构调整为主，我们预计全年出货量同比基本持平；鉴于屏下指纹出货占比上升且价格下降趋势相对缓和，我们预计19年FRMASP有望大幅上升，驱动FRM全年营收同比增长47%。
◆估值与评级
鉴于公司技术及产业链配套能力逐渐比肩一线阵营，产品结构优化有望驱动19年业绩超预期且20年增速继续高于同业，上调19-21年EPS预测6%/9%/15%至0.34/0.49/0.62元人民币，维持目标价9.3港币（对应19/20年25/14倍PE），维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：摄像模组行业竞争加剧；产品结构升级不及预期。
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