华润水泥(1313.HK)有效税率下降支撑二季度业绩维持“持有”评级目标价7.35港元
机构:银河证券
评级:持有
目标价:7.35港元
■2019年二季度,公司息税前利润同比下降10%,主要由于人民币汇率走势对公司不利,加上销量下降1.3%(水泥和熟料)所致。
■二季度经常性净利润同比持平,主要由于有效税率下降。
■在我们将2019年底人民币兑港元汇率预测从1.15降至1.0685后,我们的2019/2020年每股盈利预测下调6.9%/11%。
■维持「持有」评级,主要是考虑到销量和平均售价的涨幅十分有限,同时报表净利润将受到人民币贬值影响。
■我们将目标价从8.40港元(1.4倍2019年市净率)下调至7.35港元(1.15倍2020年市净率)。
人民币汇率同比下跌6.7% 拖累二季度息税前利润
由于公司在中国内地运营业务,而其财务报表以港元呈列,因此息税前利润同比下降10%至31.5亿港元主要是由于二季度人民币兑港元汇率平均下跌6.7%至1.148所致。二季度,水泥和熟料销量同比下降1.3%至2210万吨(受华南雨季影响),这是导致利润下滑的另一个原因。
人民币计值平均售价基本平稳
综合平均售价(水泥和熟料)在二季度同比下跌6.7%至365.5港元/吨。然而,我们估计人民币计值的平均售价同比大致持平。综合吨毛利同比下跌10.7%至156.6港元。经汇率调整后,综合吨毛利仍录得低单位数同比跌幅,這是由于人民币计值的生产成本温和上涨。
人民币贬值继续影响下半年业绩此前,我们预计人民币兑港元汇率在下半年大致持稳于1.15(上半年:1.154),在这假设下,同比表现并没有太大问题(2018下半年:1.144)。然而,在近日中美贸易争端升级后,最新的人民币兑港元汇率为1.105,因此在人民币走弱、公司销量和均价升幅有限的情况下,相信公司仍将难以在下半年实现利润增长。
下调盈利预测以反映人民币贬值
我们将2019年每股盈利预测下调6.9%,这是由于:(i)2019年平均人民币汇率预测从1.15降至1.102;(ii)2019年销量预测下调2.7%至8,500万吨,以反映我们对华南出货量给予较保守预测。我们还将2020年每股盈利下调11%,主要基于两个原因:(i)2020年平均人民币兑港元汇率预测从1.15下调至1.064;(ii)2020年销量预测下调1.8%。
降低目标市净率以反映公司已处于行业周期高位
我们之前的目标价8.40港元是基于1.4倍2019年市净率。然而,在审视过上半年业绩及考虑到中央政府明确表示不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段后,我们认为公司的销量和平均售价大升的机会不大。尽管公司正在致力开发新业务,例如预制建筑组件业务,但这些业务短期内的规模仍然相对较小。因此,我们将目标市净率从1.4倍降至1.15倍(比历史平均水平低10%)。我们的新目标价为7.35港元,基于1.15倍2020年市净率。
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