重庆农村商业银行(3618.HK)县域基础牢投资锦上花给予”增持“评级目标价7.02港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：7.02港元
本报告导读：重庆农商行为全国农商行龙头，县域和零售基础扎实且金融资产投资能力行业内领先，首次覆盖给予目标价7.02港元，增持评级。
摘要：
投资建议：重庆农商行是县域和零售基础扎实且投资能力强的全国农商行龙头，预计2019-2021年净利润增速为6.32%/5.77%/5.95%，对应EPS0.96/1.02/1.08元，BVPS7.84/8.52/9.24元，现价对应3.50/3.31/3.12倍PE，0.48/0.44/0.41倍PB。首次覆盖给予重庆农商行2019年0.80倍PB，目标价7.02港元，增持评级。
核心优势：县域客户基础牢固，投资能力锦上添花
1.全国农商龙头，深耕重庆地区。重庆农商行是重庆地区最大的地方性金融机构和全国规模最大的农商行，但由于地处西南且在H股上市，其龙头地位还未被市场充分认识。作为重庆地区唯一的省级农商行，其投放于本地的贷款比例长年超过90%，服务了重庆80%的人口。
2.渠道铺设下沉，县域基础牢固。渠道铺设广泛且下沉，分支机构+分理处数量1767个，为A股农商行近十倍，助其建立牢固的县域和零售基础。县域方面，2018年69%的存款和50%的贷款来自县域。零售方面，个人存款占比72%，可比同业第一高；个人定期存款利率2.32%，显著低于可比同业；零售贷款占比35%，可比同业第二高。
3.投资能力突出，风险适当下沉。规模方面，2018年债券和同业资产共占总资产46%，超过贷款38%的比例。收益率方面，两类资产收益率皆为可比同业第一高。高收益的原因来自风险适当下沉，其债券投资中企业债的占比和同业资产中非银机构拆出的占比皆高于可比同业。
4.盈利能力领先，业绩改善可期。2018年ROE 13.47%，为A股和H股上市农商行中第一高，归因于：负债端县域存款成本低，资产端金融市场业务性价比高，使得非息收入、营业费用和资产减值损失三方面较同业具有优势。展望未来，由于结构调整完成，资产增速将逐步回升；受益于线上消费贷款占比继续提升，息差将基本保持稳定；因此预计未来净利润增速将较2018年1.37%的低位大幅改善。
风险提示：宏观经济失速下行，信用风险反弹。
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