信义能源(3868.HK)中报业绩符合预期成长具备确定性
机构：国泰君安
本报告导读：
受人民币贬值等多因素拖累，公司2019年上半年利润略有下滑，信义能源背靠母公司信义光能，未来成长具备确定性，同时高股息稀缺性较强。
摘要：
投资建议：目标价3.0港元，维持“增持”。受人民币贬值等多因素影响，公司2019年上半年业绩略有下滑，符合预期。我们预计公司2019-2021年归母净利为9.1、11.1、12.4亿港元，分别同比增长22.29%、21.95%、11.92%，给予公司2019年22倍PE，目标价3.0港元，对应股息率约4.5%。
事件：公司发布2019年中报业绩，2019年上半年营业收入6.36亿港元，同比增长5.3%，净利润3.56亿港元，同比下降1.4%；可分派收入3.40亿港元，分派股息3.38亿港元，占可分派收入的99.3%。
人民币贬值、利用率下降、税率上上升等多因素导致业绩下滑。2019年上半年公司营收同比增长5.3%，主要受益于公司在2019年6月收购控股股东信义光能的540兆瓦光伏项目，收购项目并表驱动公司上半年收入增长。利润方面，由于人民币贬值、天气因素导致发电平均利用率下降（2019 H1平均利用率为105.6%，较2018 H1的107.4%下降1.7个百分点）、以及部分项目的税率由“全免”进入“减半”阶段（实际税率由2018 H1的5.89%上升至2019 H1的13.27%），上述多因素导致上半年公司净利润下滑1.4%。
成长具备确定性，低负债高股息凸显稀缺性。公司已与信义光能订立太阳能发电场协议，拥有信义光能太阳能发电场认购期权及优先购买权，可收购信义光能所开发或建成的已完工及并网的太阳能发电场，同时公司亦计划从独立第三方收购优质大型地面集中式太阳能项目组合，公司未来资产的成长确定性较强。同时公司定位为光伏电站运营商，电站运维成本有限，总资产负债率显著低于同行民营企业，公司计划每年分派金额不少于可分派收入的90%，且年中年末两次派息，其中2019-2020年两年将分派100%可分派收入，反观同行企业上市后鲜有分红派息。
风险提示：光伏补贴大幅下调、电站布局较为集中风险
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